Star Wars: The Phantom Menace is 25 years old and back in theaters for Star Wars Day (“May the 4th be with you”), inevitably setting off a new round of debate about the movie, the prequel trilogy as a whole, and the current, sometimes frustrating, state of Star Wars media. Though The Phantom Menace has been heavily criticized, it’s also been re-examined and even embraced over the past few decades. There are memes that celebrate the highly dramatic dialogue and direct references in tentpoles like Solo. The kids who grew up with the prequels as their main Star Wars movies have spoken up to defend them.

But arguably, what really vindicated the prequel trilogy was the spin-off culture. The animated series, books, comics, and everything else tying into the expanded canon made good on the promises delivered in the prequels’ seven hours of CG-filled adventure. The Phantom Menace, and later Attack of the Clones, introduced a political conspiracy that spanned every corner of the Star Wars universe, a corrupt government meshing with a somewhat clueless Jedi Order. In an attempt at reasonable runtimes, the movies don’t go that deep with the Jedi’s request for a clone army, or interesting characters like Darth Maul, Mace Windu, and Count Dooku, who all meet early demises. But the genius of Lucas’ plans — anticipated or accidental — is that the movies sparked creativity in other creators.

In 2014, shortly after the acquisition of Lucasfilm, Disney rebranded most “Expanded Universe” media as “Legends” content, with only a handful of stories and lore from outside of the movies surviving the purge. Still, both departed and surviving EU enhance the prequels.

One notable book that didn’t survive the new post-Disney canon is James Luceno’s Darth Plagueis, which took one of the most important yet unknown figures of the prequels and gave us a complete story that fills plenty of the blanks. The novel dealt with the Sith lord Darth Plagueis, hinted in Revenge of the Sith to be Darth Sidious’ master, and a being who could manipulate midichlorians to create life. The novel tells the story of Plagueis’ training of a teenage Palpatine, his arc to become a politician, and how the duo planned the creation of a clone army, and with that the Clone Wars itself.

Though the novel is no longer canon, the idea that Palpatine and his master planned everything about the Clone Wars in order to gain power has been explored in other comics and novels, like Luceno’s own Tarkin from 2014. Palpatine in the movies was meant to be this mastermind who was ten steps ahead of everyone, but we didn’t really see him do that much until Revenge of the Sith. Likewise, we are told vague statements about corruption and the “bureaucrats” in charge of the Senate, but in books we finally started to see how much the senator from Naboo changed the course of history in the galaxy. Tarkin illustrated the damaged political system, and how easy it was for Palpatine to manipulate it to his favor, something that fleshed out the hooded figure formerly known just as “The Emperor” into a cunning man everyone underestimated until it was too late.

The expanded canon also shines a new light on the Jedi Order better than the movies ever could. We knew from the original trilogy that the Jedi had all but disappeared; the prequels showed them to be a naïve, strict organization that was unable to prevent its downfall.

The novels Master & Apprentice by Claudia Gray and the audiobook Dooku: Jedi Lost by Cavan Scott focus on why some Jedi in the galaxy became disillusioned by the Order, and its close ties to the Republic. Master & Apprentice follows Qui-Gon Jinn as he welcomes Obi-Wan Kenobi as his apprentice, fleshing out some themes from the movies, like slavery in the galaxy and the Jedi Order’s role in galactic politics. The novel shows that Qui-Gon was constantly questioning whether the Jedi were more than the chancellor’s police force, and the nature of “balance” in the Force.

The Phantom Menace introduced the idea of Jedi as something akin to the United Nations’ Peacekeeping Forces, unable to intervene without full authority from the Republic, and expected to always be neutral. But how are they supposed to protect the light side of the Force, which lives inside all living creatures, if they can’t intervene in wars or end slavery? The current EU books confront the contradictions that pushed away members like Count Dooku and, eventually, Anakin.

When it comes to the comic books, the anthology run Age of Republic shines new light on the characters we know from the prequels. The Qui-Gon issue expands on the story from Master & Apprentice where the Jedi master was becoming obsessed with prophecies and finding true balance in the force, which he thinks the Jedi Order can’t achieve if they stay so rigid.

There’s also Obi-Wan and Anakin, written by Charles Soule, which explores the relationship between Obi-Wan and Anakin and the 10 years between Episodes I and II, carving out the brotherly bond that formed between the two Jedi. The Darth Maul miniseries focuses on Maul’s insatiable hunger to kill of Jedi, and his frustration over being forbidden to engage in combat before the events of The Phantom Menace, something that further sends him to the dark side of the Force, even if he wonders what the light has to offer.

Then there’s The Clone Wars, one of the few bits of media that wasn’t de-canonized before The Force Awakens was released. What made the animated series special from the get-go is that it seemed like everyone involved knew that viewers were pretty negative about most of the characters in the prequels, so they took it to heart to flesh them out and give them enough depth to make us love them just as much as Luke, Leia, and Han.

From the first season, The Clone Wars showed us the impact the conflict had on the entire Star Wars universe. We meet kids who were orphaned by the war, see how the criminal underworld thrived in a war setting, and note why most planetary populations hesitated to join the war effort — which kicked off rebellions in some regions. While the series was primarily aimed at kids, there was some dark and mature material at display that showed the horrors of war and the human cost of it.

One of the best parts of the series was getting to know the faceless clone army that was introduced in the movies. We first meet Domino Squad in training, then follow them through their trials and tribulations in the field of battle. The Umbara arc best exemplifies what made The Clone Wars so good. The four-episode story follows the Domino Squad and the larger 501st Legion as they embark on a deadly mission to take the capital of Umbara, and watches as tension rises between the clones and their new and reckless commander, Jedi Pong Krell. Gritty and frank about the casualties of war, the series still found room to give the clones personalities, despite all looking the same.

The animated series also did a better job of tying up loose ends. Remember that deleted scene from Revenge of the Sith where Padmé basically founds the Rebel Alliance? The Clone Wars shows there was resistance in several worlds that opposed the war, and what the Republic was doing. This included the introduction of Saw Gerrera, who played a key part in the live-action Rogue One. There was also the re-introduction of Darth Maul, who came back to life in the series, with much more than three lines of dialogue.

When it came to filling in the gaps from the prequels, The Clone Wars also gave fans their first canonical look at the infamous Sifo-Dyas in the episode “The Lost One,” which dealt with the conspiracy surrounding the creation of the clone army. In that same last season, the series showed how the Emperor was able to control the clones with Order 66, giving us a backstory for the devastating order.

In the end, for many fans, The Clone Wars succeeded where the prequels did not by making the audience care about Anakin Skywalker’s journey. The arrogant, bratty Jedi was given more dimension, and his story became that of a man caught between the light and dark sides of the Force. We witnessed his constant struggles with the dark side, his fear of loss, his anger and resentment toward the world, the pressures of being a Jedi, and how it all made him the perfect target for Palpatine’s manipulation. The series provided a deeper, more complex look at the character and made his shift into Darth Vader logical, with much more impact.

The Phantom Menace is 25 years old, but the prequel era feels fresher than ever. The gripes mounted over two decades have been challenged, inverted, and matured by the ever-expanding EU. Fear over the prequels leads to anger, anger leads to hate, and hate leads to suffering — but most of that could be alleviated by picking up the right book.

“Yesterday, we just give the best shot we can,” Samantha’s mother, Alicja Frechon, a native Polish speaker, said Tuesday evening from her home in Braintree. “Today, she didn’t trust no one. Not them, not me.”

Samantha’s enrollment at the 1,000-student East Middle School, which marked her first time in a regular public school in six years, came on the orders of a Norfolk County Superior Court judge following the eighth-grader’s months-long absence from any type of schooling. That absence, Judge Catherine Ham ruled last week, had caused Samantha “irreparable harm.”

Samantha’s fate had landed in Ham’s hands following a prolonged dispute between Frechon and Braintree Public Schools about the appropriate setting for the special education student, the Globe previously reported. Samantha, who has autism and crippling anxiety, among other disabilities, had last year attended a private school that specialized in one-on-one instruction, an environment where she thrived, she and her mother said.

The cost of that school, Fusion Academy in Hingham, was paid for by the Braintree school district under a provision of federal special education law that requires districts to cover private tuition when they cannot provide an appropriate education in-house. Braintree, though, chose not to enroll Samantha at Fusion this school year. (She had been one of roughly 9,500 Massachusetts special education students who were enrolled in separate public or private day schools at public expense in 2022, while about 800 more were educated at residential facilities, federal data show.) The district, in the midst of a budget crisis, said it would not pay the tuition for the private school, saying the placement at the Hingham school, which does not employ special educators, was only temporary. Superintendent Jim Lee previously has said the district’s financial situation played no role in its educational decisions.

Frechon sought the court’s help, alleging in court documents that Braintree had violated the girl’s “stay put” rights, a key tenet of both federal and state special education law. Under the provision, special education students have the right to stay in their current placement while administrators, teachers, therapists, and their parents sort out a disagreement over a potential change.

But Ham, who at a previous court hearing said she was unfamiliar with the intricacies of special education law, instead ruled Samantha should return to a traditional public school setting, a learning environment the teen hadn’t been taught in since she was 8. After being out of school all year, Samantha went with her mother to the middle school on Monday.

The transition was grueling.

Pulling behind an idling school bus, Alicja Frechon turned her head toward the passenger seat, and asked her daughter if she was OK.

“Mm-mm,” Samantha murmured, her face pale from fear, staring blankly ahead, as John Mellencamp crooned “Ain’t That America” on the car radio.

Shortly after entering the school, Samantha, overwhelmed by the number of adults there to assist her, nearly fainted and required attention from the school nurse, Frechon said.

(A Globe reporter and photographer shadowed Samantha on her way to school, then waited with her mother at the house until the school day was done.)

Shortly after drop-off, while Frechon sat at her dining room table, the first call from the school came.

Samantha, switching back and forth between English and their native Polish, begged her mom to come get her, her voice growing more insistent with each desperate plea: “Please come get me. I want to go. Please come get me. ... I don’t feel safe here, and I want to leave. ... Please come get me. I’ve already been here long enough. They know I tried.”

It was the first of eight calls in three hours.

Frechon, dabbing tears from her eyes with a paper napkin, told the girl she couldn’t. “I cannot just go get you,” Frechon said. “You’re asking me something I can’t do.”

Frechon said she worried the district might portray her as not wanting Samantha in school or not complying with the judge’s order.

Frechon questioned whether the school could provide her daughter what she needs. Samantha spent nearly the entire day in an empty conference room with two behavioral therapists. She did not interact with other students.

At times during the calls home, East Middle School Assistant Principal Andrew Curran spoke with Frechon.

Curran, maintaining an upbeat tone to his voice, explained the school would be setting Samantha up with a Chromebook so she could start accessing schoolwork. Still, Samantha begged to go home.

“I did tell her, ‘Honey, I can’t. I can’t overrule, you know, your mom and the judges and the lawyers,’” he said. “We knew the first day, it was gonna be tough.”

But Tuesday was even worse.

Samantha, panicked with nerves, again required the school nurse’s attention shortly after she entered the building. Unwilling to remain at the school as her mother sought to leave, Samantha then went to the parking lot, where she refused to move away from Frechon’s car.

Frechon questioned whether it’d be better for her to leave so the school officials could bring Samantha back into the school.

Collins Fay-Martin, a special education attorney advising Frechon pro bono, soon arrived at the school, where, according to a video recorded by Fay-Martin and viewed by the Globe, a school official threatened to call the Department of Children and Families if Frechon were to leave the school while Samantha remained in the parking lot.

“Are you going to leave a child here who doesn’t want to come into the school?” the official said.

“You’re court-ordered to have her,” Fay-Martin responded.

Soon after, officers from the Braintree Police Department arrived, at the school’s request.

At one point, a school official started recording the incident on her phone, riling Frechon, who began yelling at the school officials.

Samantha fell to the ground, vomiting, saying she couldn’t breathe. Her mom called 911, prompting an ambulance to arrive and take the teen to the hospital.

“You’re damned if you do, damned if you don’t,” Fay-Martin said, referring to Frechon’s position — take her daughter, but run afoul of the judge’s ruling, or leave her daughter, and let her suffer.

Superintendent Lee did not respond to an email requesting comment about Samantha’s return to school and Tuesday’s events.

Mandy McLaren can be reached at mandy.mclaren@globe.com. Follow her @mandy_mclaren.

In 2022, Penguin Random House wanted to buy Simon & Schuster. The two publishing houses made up 37 percent and 11 percent of the market share, according to the filing, and combined they would have condensed the Big Five publishing houses into the Big Four. But the government intervened and brought an antitrust case against Penguin to determine whether that would create a monopoly. 

The judge ultimately ruled that the merger would create a monopoly and blocked the $2.2 billion purchase. But during the trial, the head of every major publishing house and literary agency got up on the stand to speak about the publishing industry and give numbers, giving us an eye-opening account of the industry from the inside. All of the transcripts from the trial were compiled into a book called The Trial. It took me a year to read, but I’ve finally summarized my findings and pulled out all the compelling highlights.

I think I can sum up what I’ve learned like this: The Big Five publishing houses spend most of their money on book advances for big celebrities like Brittany Spears and franchise authors like James Patterson and this is the bulk of their business. They also sell a lot of Bibles, repeat best sellers like Lord of the Rings, and children’s books like The Very Hungry Caterpillar. These two market categories (celebrity books and repeat bestsellers from the backlist) make up the entirety of the publishing industry and even fund their vanity project: publishing all the rest of the books we think about when we think about book publishing (which make no money at all and typically sell less than 1,000 copies).

But let’s dig into everything they said in detail.

In my essay “Writing books isn’t a good idea” I wrote that, in 2020, only 268 titles sold more than 100,000 copies, and 96 percent of books sold less than 1,000 copies. That’s still the vibe.

Q. Do you know approximately how many authors there are across the industry with 500,000 units or more during this four-year period?

A. My understanding is that it was about 50.

Q. 50 authors across the publishing industry who during this four-year period sold more than 500,000 units in a single year?

A. Yes.

— , CEO, Penguin Random House US

The DOJ’s lawyer collected data on 58,000 titles published in a year and discovered that 90 percent of them sold fewer than 2,000 copies and 50 percent sold less than a dozen copies.

In my essay “No one will read your book,” I said that publishing houses work more like venture capitalists. They invest small sums in lots of books in hopes that one of them breaks out and becomes a unicorn, making enough money to fund all the rest.

Turns out, they agree!

Every year, in thousands of ideas and dreams, only a few make it to the top. So I call it the Silicon Valley of media. We are angel investors of our authors and their dreams, their stories. That’s how I call my editors and publishers: angels… It’s rather this idea of Silicon Valley, you see 35 percent are profitable; 50 on a contribution basis. So every book has that same likelihood of succeeding.

— Markus Dohle, CEO, Penguin Random House

Those unicorns happen every five to 10 years or so.

We’re very hit driven. When a book is successful, it can be wildly successful. There are books that sell millions and millions of copies, and those are financial gushes for the publishers of that book, sometimes for years to come… A gusher is once in a decade or something. For instance, I don’t know if you know the Twilight series of books? Hachette published the Twilight series of books, and those made hundreds of millions of dollars over the course of time.

Right now the novels of Colleen Hoover are topping the bestseller lists in really, really huge numbers and the publishers of those books are making a lot of money. You probably remember The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo… Or the Fifty Shades of Grey series. So once every five years, ten years, those come along for the whole industry and become the industry driver that’s drawing people into bookstores because there is such a commotion about them. 

— Michael Pietsch, CEO, Hachette

They spent a lot of the trial talking about books that made an advance of more than $250,000—they called these “anticipated top-sellers.” According to Nicholas Hill, a partner at Bates White Economic Consulting, 2 percent of all titles earn an advance over $250,000.

Publisher’s Marketplace says it’s even lower.

Top-selling authors were defined as those receiving advances (i.e., guaranteed money) in excess of $250,000. Far fewer than 1 percent of authors receive advances over that mark; Publishers Marketplace, which tracks these things, recorded 233 such deals in all of 2022.

— , Publisher at Sutherland House

Hill says titles that earn advances over $250,000 account for 70 percent of advance spending by publishing houses. At Penguin Random House, it’s even more. The bulk of their advance spending goes to deals worth $1 million or more, and there are about 200 of those deals a year. Of the roughly $370 million they say PRH accounts for, $200 million of that goes to advance deals worth $1 million or more.

Most of those are deals with celebrities. And Penguin gets most of them.

Books by the Obamas sold so many copies they had to be removed from the charts as statistical anomalies.

There are giant celebrities Michelle Obama where you know it’s going to be a top seller.

— Jennifer Rudolph Walsch, Literary Agent

Because they are so lucrative, Gallery Books Group focuses its efforts on trying to get celebrities to write books.

75 percent [of our] acquisitions come from approaching celebrities, politicians, athletes, the “celebrity adjacent,” etc. That way, we can control the content…. We are approaching authors and celebrities and politicians and athletes for ideas. So it’s really we are on the look out. We are scouts in a lot of ways…

— Jennifer Bergstrom, SVP, Gallery Books Group

Bergstrom said her biggest celebrity sale was Amy Schumer who received millions of dollars for her advance.

We’ve had a lot of success publishing musicians, I mentioned Bruce Springsteen. We’ve also published Bob Dylan and Linda Ronstadt, a lot of entertainers through the years… There was a political writer, Ben Shapiro, who has a very popular podcast and a large following. We also competed with HarperCollins for that.

— Jonathan Karp, CEO, Simon & Schuster

Penguin Random House US has guidelines for who gets what advance:

• Category 1: Lead titles with a sales goal of 75,000 units and up

  • Advance: $500,000 and up

• Category 2: Titles with a sales goal of 25,000-75,000 units

  • Advance: $150,000-$500,000

• Category 3: Titles with a sales goal of 10,000-25,000 units

  • Advance: $50,000- $150,000

• Category 4: Titles with a sales goal of 5,000 to 10,000 units

  • Advance: $50,000 or less

Is anyone else alarmed that the top tier is book sales of 75,000 units and up? One post on Substack could get more views than that…..

Franchise authors are the other big category. Walsch says James Patterson and John Grisham get advances in the “many millions.” Putnam makes most of its money from repeat authors like John Sandford, Clive Cussler, Tom Clancy, Lisa Scottoline, and others.

Q. Putnam typically publihses about 60 books a year. Correct?

A. 60, 65, sort of on naverage… I will say of those 65, though, a good portion of those are repeat authors… franchise authors that we regularly publish every year, sometimes twice a year.

— Sally Kim, SVP and Publisher, Putnam

The advantage of publishing celebrity books is that they have a built-in audience.

In some of the cases, the reason they are paying big money is because the person has a big platform. And if that platform is there for the advertising, then the spend might be lower.

— Jennifer Rudolph Walsh, former Agent

Macmillan agrees.

Q. Would you agree that those type of authors, meaning the ones with the built-in audience, are also authors who would command a high advance if they went to a traditional publisher like Macmillan or PRH? 

A. That’s a broad brush. But, yes…

Q. And you’re willing to pay more if they have a significant following? 

A. Yes.

— Donald Weisberg, CEO, Macmillan Publishers

They give some examples:

The Butcher and the Wren… this particular author has a big following, and with a single post on Instagram, she presold over 40,000 books. So, I mean, that’s just staggering from a per copy perspective, and it pretty much guarantees a number one spot on the New York [Times] best seller list when it’s published in September.

— Jennifer Rudolph Walsh, former Agent

These big advances, the authors have quite a bit of their own infrastructure with them. They have their own publicists. They have their own social media people. They have their own newsletters. So they actually are able—we are able to offload a good amount of the work, not all the time, but that is actually a factor in why we sometimes pay these big advances, because the authors are actually capable of helping us a lot.

— Jonathan Karp, CEO, Simon & Schuster

For example:

Q. Who is the best selling Simon & Schuster author currently? 
A. Right now it’s Colleen Hoover. 
Q. Does she have the highest marketing budget that Simon & Schuster pays? 
A. No. 
Q. Why is that? 
A. She’s the queen of TikTok, and so she has a huge following on TikTok.

— Jonathan Karp, CEO, Simon & Schuster

Related:

[One author wrote] paranormal, so it’s sexy vampires. This book was probably her 21st book. So she’s what I would call a franchise author. She’s very established. Though we spent $1.2 million on the book, we spent about $62,000 on the marketing and publicity because she had such an established fan base…

[Another author is] a celebrity-adjacent author, but also her platform was on social media. So we paid $450,000 for her book, and we spent $36,000 on the marketing and publicity. We didn’t need to spend more than that because she already booked at that point on Good Morning America, The Today Show. So publicity drove that, and that didn’t cost us.

— Jennifer Bergstrom, SVP, Gallery Books Group

Just goes to show that the main thing an author gets from a publishing house is an advance!

Every second book in America, ballpark, is being sold via <a href="http://e-commerce%E2%80%A6Amazon.com" rel="nofollow">e-commerce…Amazon.com</a> has 50 million books available. A bookstore, a good independent bookstore, has around 50,000 different books available… an algorithm decides what is being presented and made visible and discoverable for an end consumer online. It makes a huge difference.

— Markus Dohle, CEO, Penguin Random House

Publishing houses try to game the algorithm and even pay to get ahead of it.

Q.  Penguin Random House has hired data scientists to try and figure out these algorithms so that its books get better presented on Amazon than its competitors’ books? 

A. One of the many efforts that we pursue, correct.

Q. And Penguin Random House pays Amazon to improve its search results? 

A. There is something that is available to our publishers, it’s called Amazon Marketing Services, AMS, and all publishers can spend money and give it to Amazon to have hopefully better search results.

— Markus Dohle, CEO, Penguin Random House

, president of Ayesha Pande Literary, says that 20 percent of her authors earn out their advance—if she’s being generous.

The single most important contract term is the advance…Because in a large number of cases, it may be the only compensation that the author will receive for their work.

— Ayesha Pande, President, Ayesha Pande Literary

Even celebrity books flop.

There are plenty of books that we spend $1 million on the advance and published them last year and they did not even make the top 1,000 on BookScan… Less than 45 percent of those books [that we spend a million dollars on] end up on that thousand best seller list.

— Madeline Mcintosh, CEO, Penguin Random House US

Just because the publisher pays $250,000 or $500,000 or $1 million for a book does not guarantee that a single person is going to buy it. A lot of what we do is unknowable and based on inspiration and optimism.”

— Michael Pietsch, CEO, Hachette

Even celebrities, though sometimes you think it’s going to be a big best seller, it flops. It happens…  I mean, Andrew Cuomo’s book was sold at the height of his being America’s governor during the COVID crisis. I mean, that book was sold for $5 million, I believe. I don’t know for a fact. But by the time it came out, the nursing home scandal had happened, the Me Too issues, and the book didn’t do any business.

Sometimes it’s just a timing issue, like Marie Kondo. She did a book about Joy at Work, about making your office sparked with joy because it’s not cluttered. It published in March of 2020.

— Jennifer Rudolph Walsch, Literary Agent

Having a lot of social media followers or fame doesn’t guarantee it will sell. The singer Billie Eilish, despite her 97 million Instagram followers and 6 million Twitter followers, sold only 64,000 copies within eight months of publishing her book. The singer Justin Timberlake sold only 100,000 copies in the three years after he published his book. Snoop Dog’s cookbook saw a boost during the pandemic, but he still only sold 205,000 copies in 2020.

Here’s a few more:

Representative Ilhan Omar, a Democrat from Minnesota, is no global pop star, but she has a significant social-media presence, with 3 million Twitter followers and another 1.3 million on Instagram. Yet her book, This Is What America Looks Like: My Journey from Refugee to Congresswoman, which was published in May 2020, has sold just 26,000 copies across print, audio and e-book formats, according to her publisher.

Tamika D. Mallory, a social activist with over a million Instagram followers, was paid over $1 million for a two-book deal. But her first book, State of Emergency, has sold just 26,000 print copies since it was published in May, according to BookScan.

The journalist and media personality Piers Morgan had a weaker showing in the United States. Despite his followers on Twitter (8 million) and Instagram (1.8 million), Wake Up: Why the World Has Gone Nuts has sold just 5,650 U.S. print copies since it was published a year ago, according to BookScan.

—The New York Times

It’s pretty common.

The worst day of a life of an agent and an author is when they’ve gotten a large advance and you go on BookScan and you see their first few months’ of sales and it says 4,000 copies or something like that. It happens. It happens more than any of us would like.

— Gail Ross, Literary Agent

If I look at the top 10 percent of books… that 10 percent level gets you to about 300,000 copies sold in that year. And if you told me I’m definitely going to sell 300,000 copies in a year, I would spend many millions of dollars to get that book.

— Madeline Mcintosh, CEO, Penguin Random House US

Publishing houses pay millions of dollars for a book that sells only 300,000 copies??? Well, because books don’t sell a lot of copies, they don’t make a lot of money. According to Hill, 85 percent of the books with advances of $250,000 and up never earn out their advance. (Meaning the royalties earned never covered the cost of the advance.)

Very, very frequently, the winning bid in our calculation is a money loser.

— Michael Pietsch, CEO, Hachette

Markus Dohle, CEO, Penguin Random House, says the top 4 percent of titles drive 60 percent of the profitability. That goes for the rest of them too:

It would be just a couple of books in every hundred are driving that degree of profit… twoish books account for the lion’s share of profitability.

— Madeline Mcintosh, CEO, Penguin Random House US

Around half the books we publish make a profit of some kind.

— Michael Pietsch, CEO, Hachette

About half of the books we publish make money, and a much lower percentage of them earn back the advance we pay.

— Jonathan Karp, CEO, Simon & Schuster

Many publishers have realized that maybe those big advances aren’t worth it.

We have a report that we colloquially call ‘The Ones That Got Away.’ And it’s a report on the books where we bid $500,000 or more as an advance and did not succeed in acquiring the book… this report stands as a kind of caution against the high risk of big advances because the lesson we take away again and again is: Thank goodness we stopped bidding when we did because even at the advance we offered, we would have lost money… Very frequently, the winning bid in our calculation is a money loser.  

— Michael Pietsch, CEO, Hachette

If new books typically don’t sell well, well that’s why publishing houses make their revenue from their backlist.

I would actually expect a book that is selling 300,000 units in a year is probably going to sell at least 400,000 or 500,000 over its life once you get backlist in there too.

Our backlist brings in about a third of our annual revenues, so $300 million a year roughly, a little less.

— Michael Pietsch, CEO, Hachette

The backlist includes all of the books that have ever come out. Brian Murray, CEO of HarperCollins, points out that their backlist includes bibles (an $80 million business), coloring books, dictionaries, encyclopedias, magic trick books, calendars, puzzles, and SAT study guides. It also includes perennial bestsellers like Don Quijote, Steven King’s Carrie, and Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings—these books continue to sell year after year.

Popular children’s books are cash cows selling huge amounts of copies year after year and generation after generation.

Sometimes children’s books will be three generations, people have been buying them over and over again, and so that backlist catalog is really, really important to pay for the overhead of your publishing teams and then also to take the risks on the new books. So without a backlist I think it’s very hard to compete with these big books.

— Brian Murray, CEO, HarperCollins

For instance, Penguin Random House owns Eric Carle’s Very Hungry Caterpillar intellectual property. The book has been on Publisher Weekly’s bestseller list every week for 19 years.

Children’s books comprised 27 percent of PRH’s sales in 2021. That’s about $725 million—so roughly double the size of Scholastic’s trade division, and more or less equal on its own to all of Macmillan or HBG. Christian books accounted for 2 percent.

—The Trial

Backlist titles like The Bible and Very Hungry Caterpillar and Lord of the Rings make up a disproportionately large percentage of the publishing industry.

Q. Are you concerned that Amazon will favor Penguin Random House Simon & Schuster in terms of promotion and distribution and discoverability? 

A. Yes.

— Donald Weisberg, CEO, Macmillan Publishers

With Amazon’s data, they could immediately beat out all the publishing houses if they wanted to.

I think Amazon as a publisher of books is underestimated. They have about 50 editors… Obviously, given the number of people searching on Amazon for products, that gives them a huge advantage because when people go onto Amazon, they—if the book isn’t there for what they are searching for, they could create that book. That’s one theory I have. But even if that doesn’t happen, they know what people are buying and they have access to that data. Their bestseller list, in my view, is more important than The New York Times best seller list because it’s in realtime. It’s hourly. And I look at that Amazon best seller list regularly, every day.

— Jonathan Karp, CEO, Simon & Schuster

Wouldn’t it be great if you could pay $9.99 a month and read all of the books you want? Just like you get all the movies you want from Netflix? Or all the music you want from Spotify?

Technically, it does exist. Kindle Unlimited is the largest, followed by Scribd. Audible isn’t quite all-access, but then Spotify got into audiobooks and made them so. But none of these players have quite taken off the way Netflix or Spotify has. That’s for one reason: The Big Five publishing houses refuse to let their authors participate. 

Q. No books are found on Kindle Unlimited? Because you think that’ll be had for the industry?”

A. We think it’s going to destroy the publishing industry.

— Markus Dohle, CEO, Penguin Publishing House

He’s right. No one would purchase a book again.

We all know about Netflix, we all know about Spotify and other media categories, and we also know what it has done to some industries… The music industry has lost, in the digital transformation, approximately 50 percent of its overall revenue pool.

— Markus Dohle, CEO, Penguin Publishing House

There’s one reason.

Around 20 to 25 percent of the readers, the heavy readers, account for 80 percent of the revenue pool of the industry of what consumers spend on books. It’s the really dedicated readers. If they got all-access, the revenue pool of the industry is going to be very small. Physical retail will be gone—see music—within two to three years. And we will be dependent on a few Silicon Valley or Swedish internet companies that will actually provide all-access.

— Markus Dohle, CEO, Penguin Publishing House

The publishing industry would die, that’s for sure. But I’d be willing to bet writers would get their books read way more.

And I think it’s on its way. Spotify has already started publishing audiobooks, and my money is on Substack for eventually publishing written books!

If publishing houses make minimal investment in marketing their authors and focus largely on celebrity books and their backlist, authors who can’t snag a large advance might have better luck building their own audience and publishing elsewhere.

I think really from the advent of online—really, once the internet became popular, you know, we heard the phrase disintermediation. And I don’t understand why that wouldn’t be a possible prospect for any best selling author, to just disintermediate, to go straight to the internet and sell directly if you have a following… Colleen Hoover has published with both Amazon and Simon & Schuster. And her Amazon book was on the independent book sellers’ best seller list. So what that says to me is that a Rubicon has been crossed.

— Jonathan Karp, CEO, Simon & Schuster

The romance category has already gone independent.

Many of those heavy readers of romance novels at that time switched to self-published stories. A very different price point. 99 cents, $1.99, away from what we call mass-market trade paperbacks… The mass-market trade paperback is the sort of small-format mass-market book, like it is a trade paperback, but a smaller format. It has been declining for the last 25 years. But we had a step change around ’14, ‘15, with this trend that so many consumers went away from mass-market books into electronic ebooks in particular and self-published books.”

— Markus Dohle, CEO, Penguin Random House

Gallery author moved to self-publishing (though Todd began her career writing on Wattpad, and recently returned to set up an imprint at Wattpad Books).

— Jennifer Bergstrom, SVP, Gallery Books Group

And of course, we have to talk about Kickstarter MVP Brandon Sanderson.

There is a New York Times best selling author in the science fiction and fantasy category. His name is Brandon Sanderson. I believe he’s published by both Macmillan and Penguin Random House. He went onto Kickstarter and announced that he would be offering four of his novels to anybody who wanted them if they wanted to donate to Kickstarter. And he raised over $42 million…

I have subsequently become aware of Good Night Stories for Rebel Girls, which is a series of books. It’s now actually become a whole company. And these are stories to give young girls confidence. And it’s been very successful, and it’s actually resulted in an entire company.

— Jonathan Karp, CEO, Simon & Schuster

After the Judge denied the merger, Penguin went through a massive round of layoffs and Simon & Schuster was sold to a private equity company instead. 

Private equity tends to have one game plan: buy a company, load it with debt, wring out costs to improve its financials, sell at a profit. Dealing Simon & Schuster to private equity, The New Republic warned at the time with some slight hyperbole of its own, would mean “absolute devastation and wholesale job loss.”

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The publishing houses may live to see another day, but I don’t think their model is long for this world. Unless you are a celebrity or franchise author, the publishing model won’t provide a whole lot more than a tiny advance and a dozen readers. If you are a celebrity, you’ll still have a much bigger reach on Instagram than you will with your book!

Personally, I could not be more grateful to skip the publishing houses altogether and write directly for my readers here, being supported by those who read this newsletter rather than by a publishing advance that won’t ultimately translate to people reading my work.

But I’d love to know your thoughts 👇🏻

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