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A Plea for Sober AI

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The hype is so loud we can’t appreciate the magic

The OpenAI and Google I/O product announcements are over, and the hype hangovers are being nursed.

We got drunk on big claims and now we’re sobering up to the reality of the products.

Riley Goodside, staff prompt engineer at Scale.ai, quickly embarrassed GPT-4o once it hit ChatGPT:

GPT-4o falls for trope headfakes

Not quite in line with the expectations set by OpenAI’s demo!1

Google was no better.

In The Verge, Alex Cranz lamented Google’s avoidance of hallucinations, despite several occuring during the keynote. The only acknowledgement of AI’s limitations were the smallest disclaimers at the bottom of some slides. The disclaimer is so small it’s unreadable in screencaps! I’ve circled it in red:

Cranz writes:

During Google’s IO keynote, it added, in tiny gray font, the phrase “check responses for accuracy” to the screen below nearly every new AI tool it showed off — a helpful reminder that its tools can’t be trusted, but it also doesn’t think it’s a problem. ChatGPT operates similarly. In tiny font just below the prompt window, it says, “ChatGPT can make mistakes. Check important info.”


So why is this hype bad? Why can’t we wallow in the promise of AI for a few days? What’s wrong with pretending these carefully managed demos aren’t casual one-take affairs?

The hype is so loud it washes out the true magic of these products.

Oddly, the best example of this is from another of those hype hangover articles, this time Julia Angwin’s piece in The New York Times Opinion section, “Press Pause on the Silicon Valley Hype Machine.” In it she writes:

The reality is that A.I. models can often prepare a decent first draft. But I find that when I use A.I., I have to spend almost as much time correcting and revising its output as it would have taken me to do the work myself.

Read that again. And again, until the absurdity of it sinks in.

We have software that can write a “decent first draft” in a few seconds, for free or a for few cents, and we’re disappointed.

Thanks to the constant hype – from OpenAI, Google, and countless other companies and boosters2 – we’re disappointed.

Imagine having products THIS GOOD and still over-selling them.

We’re constantly teased with the promise of AGI, shown flawless demos of assistants that can do anything, and continually served up empty text-box products hooked up to general models that claim to handle anything we can throw at them. The difficulties and challenges of promting is hidden and hallucinations are never mentioned. The end result is we train users to dangerously trust whatever AI slop they’re presented or we train them to dismiss the whole field.


Below all this hype, there’s a quiet revolution happening. I keep meeting new companies and seeing new products that make practical use of LLMs. They use them to solve narrow problems and prioritize consistency and efficiency over giant, all-singing, all-dancing models. I keep meeting people who are amplifying their capacity and abilities by handing simple, mundane tasks to AIs, which they then refine and improve. AI-assisted coding has been a boon for early-stage start ups, which are shipping products with a maturity and polish beyond their years.

This is the world of Sober AI.

Sober AI vs Hyped AI

I don’t think we’re going to hit AGI anytime soon. I think those who think GPT-5 is going to be a leap as significant as GPT-2 to GPT-3, let alone GPT-3 to GPT-4, are going to be disappointed.

But steadily, quietly, Sober AI users and products are going to remake so much. If we dial back the hype, I bet we’ll get there faster.

  1. That cringe demo lives in my head rent free. The giggling voice, complimenting the dude for, “rockin’ an OpenAI hoodie”… I wonder if the phrase “Manic Pixie Dreamgirl” is in the prompt. 

  2. Oddly, Meta is the best behaved of the big players. It’s worth noting how they rolled out AI into their Wayfarer glasses incredibly slowly, always disclosed as a beta or experimental feature. 

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Migration is about migrants

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The USDA’s gardening zones shifted. This map shows you what’s changed in vivid detail

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walking pot

2023 USDA map

2012 USDA map

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current slide ID: temperature-chart

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Animation of a cute azalea plant walking in front of the hardiness map


Recently, the USDA updated its plant hardiness map for the first time in 11 years.

If you’re a gardener — and everybody can be a gardener, even on a balcony or a stoop — this is a big deal!

The updated map opens up new possibilities for home gardeners, but there are limits. Let’s explore how the map has changed and what this means for your garden.

Enter your city and state:

No data found.

or

Take Boston as an example.

In 2012, the USDA classified Boston, Mass., as Zone 6b.

Back then, Boston’s coldest winter temperature was somewhere between -5 and 0 degrees Fahrenheit on average.

In 2023, Boston is still rated as Zone 7a.

In 2023, the USDA reclassified Boston as Zone 7a.

Now, the lowest winter temperature is between 0 and 5 degrees Fahrenheit on average.

Even though Boston’s zone didn’t change, that doesn’t mean the area hasn’t experienced some change in winter lows.

The new 30-year minimum temperature average was 1.1º F warmer than the previous average, which spanned 1976 to 2005.

That’s because the new average minimum temperature in Boston is 1.1º F warmer than the previous average, from an earlier period.

Change in lowest winter temperature

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

+2

+4

+6

+8° F

Most of the changes across the country are due to the warming climate.

Winters are warming at a faster pace than other seasons, according to Deke Arndt, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Environmental Information.

At the same time, an increase in the amount and quality of data collected at weather stations across the country helped to improve the overall accuracy of temperature readings in recent years.

””

What does your hardiness zone tell you?

Some people might think their hardiness zone tells them which plants they can grow. In reality, it’s a little more complicated.

Your zone measurement is an average of the coldest yearly temperature in your area over the past 30 years.

This measurement, which predicts an area’s coldest temperatures, is only useful for plants that have to survive the winter.

They’re called perennials: You plant them once and they come back after each winter if they’re given the right environment to survive. Think things like trees, shrubs and woody plants.

And for predicting winter plant survival, knowing an area’s hardiness zone is a big help to gardeners, says Todd Rounsaville, a horticulturist with the USDA who was involved with creating the new map. He explains that the hardiness zone “is really one of the best predictors of winter survival and plant survival in general in the landscape.”

He advises gardeners to use the map as one very important tool of many in their risk assessment toolbox.

“Because the USDA map has really become the industry standard for rating things, it’s pretty rare that you will not see a zone rating on a plant, either on the tag or on a website,” he says.

Knowing what your average coldest temperature is helps rightsize your expectations about what might grow in your area. Live in Chicago’s Zone 6a? You can be assured that no citrus plants will survive your winter. Instead, try an apple tree. The apple tree is that kid you grew up with who wore shorts all winter. It needs the cold temperatures to set fruit.

Live in Miami’s Zone 11a? No apples for you. Instead, grow dragon fruit!

What does your hardiness zone not tell you?

On its own, your hardiness zone can’t tell you exactly what to grow in your area.

For example, parts of these three areas — Juneau, Alaska; Boston, Mass.; and Santa Fe, N.M. — are all in USDA’s Zone 7a.

“We know intuitively that the same plants can’t grow in these places,” Rounsaville says.

While Juneau may have relatively temperate winters, it also is extremely wet, averaging over 80 inches of snow a year. Santa Fe, on the other hand, is extremely dry, with much hotter summer temperatures than Juneau. Boston has both temperate winters and summers. It gets a good amount of rain but not nearly enough to sustain Juneau’s rainforest plants. It gets plenty of heat but is colder and wetter in the winter, making it inhospitable for desert dwellers, like cactuses and other succulents.

But all three cities rarely get below zero degrees each winter, so they are classified as the same zone.

So when you hear that your zone has changed, here are some things to keep in mind:

1 The hardiness map says nothing about your extreme lowest temperature

Just because your average lowest winter temperature has changed, doesn’t mean the temperature will never dip below your hardiness zone.

2 The hardiness map says nothing about the frequency of extreme cold weather

Your poor plants have to stay outside all winter, so the duration and frequency of cold weather matters for plant survival.

“If you’re naked and you run through a freezer, it’s not going to kill you,” says Andrew Bunting, vice president of horticulture at the Pennsylvania Horticultural Society. “If you run into the freezer and have to stay there for an extended period of time, it’s probably going to kill you.”

If extreme, out-of-zone weather occurs during a quick cold snap, steps can be taken to protect your plants with temporary blankets or other shelters. Pots can be brought inside.

But if the extreme lows persist, tender plants will struggle to survive. Your hardiness zone does not take any of this into account.

3 The hardiness map can’t tell you if your plants will survive the summer

Summer temperature extremes matter a great deal but are not reflected in the USDA hardiness map.

Let’s look again at Juneau and Santa Fe, much of which are in Zone 7a. Juneau’s all-time high temperature was 90º F in 1975. Summer days in Santa Fe routinely reach the 90s. Some shade- and cool-weather-loving plants like ferns and hostas will thrive in Juneau but struggle mightily in a place like Santa Fe. Likewise, a cactus accustomed to high temperatures would struggle to thrive in the cooler summer temperatures of Juneau, to say nothing of the overwhelming rainfall.

Because of this tricky problem, there have been attempts to create a corresponding map that helps gardeners know which plants might survive summer in their area.

In 1997, the American Horticultural Society released a heat zone map that measured the average number of times per year that the temperature of an area exceeds 86º F.

AHS Heat Zone Map (1997) American Horticultural Society

But this map didn’t become well known among gardeners. On a recent visit to a plant nursery outside Washington, D.C., nearly every plant tag had a USDA hardiness zone, but only one, out of the several dozen checked, had the AHS heat zone listed.

Above 86º F, plants from cooler climates rapidly become stressed.

Because of these complexities, more plant survival factors should be included in the 2023 map, says Tony Avent, who runs Juniper Level Botanic Garden and Plant Delights Nursery in Raleigh, N.C.

“If [these metrics] had been factored in, that would have given you a much more applicable map,” says Avent, who was a member of the committee that put together the 2012 version of the map.

“And that’s the part that’s a little disappointing.”

But including more plant survival factors in the USDA hardiness map runs the risk of creating an overly complicated map and muddying its intended use, Rounsaville says.

“In a perfect world, we could infinitely break down where plants will grow well, but that’s very hard to do and produce a map that is, you know, coherent but at a local resolution,” Rounsaville says.

””

Since the USDA plant hardiness zone can’t tell you everything about how a plant will fare in your garden, it’s a good idea to turn to local plant experts for guidance. Local nurseries and botanical gardens can be great resources for in-depth knowledge of the area and recent warming or cooling trends.

New plant varieties are constantly being bred with improvements such as increased hardiness, bloom count, bloom length or color combinations.

Some nursery owners like Avent enjoy experimenting with these plants. He and his team grow many varieties of plants — both typical and unconventional — to figure out which plants they can bring to market in Raleigh.

“We live to kill plants,” Avent says. He estimates that they’ve killed over 50,000 plant varieties in his career. Every one they kill, they record in a database.

””

If my zone changed, can I plant new things now?

Maybe, and maybe you already did! It’s possible you or your neighbors may have already noticed some of these climatic changes and have been experimenting with plant varieties that were once unusual for your area.

Keep in mind that the new USDA map is backward looking; it represents changes that have already taken place over the past 30 years.

In the 7a-7b Philadelphia suburbs, Bunting notes two perennials that he has noticed surviving Philadelphia winters in recent years.

“It used to be [that] if you had a camellia, it was in a little courtyard with lots of protection, maybe even wrapped [in protective cloth] for the winter.” But now, “It’s perfectly hardy. Same with figs. People used to wrap figs. You don’t have to do that anymore.”

Of course, your mileage may vary. As Bunting notes, where you plant a perennial in your yard — whether sheltered or in the open — matters. Some areas get southern exposure and lots of sun, others are behind a house, or under a tree. Every yard has many distinct microclimates, and learning how to harness these subtle differences in your yard can help you plant more ambitious varieties with more confidence.

“Gardeners know that if they’re near paved surfaces or brick and mortar structures, that there’s a lot of radiant heat that those absorb during the day,” Rounsaville says. “And they can really push hardiness zones through the winter to help with plant survival.”

With that, you have what you need to start a garden. Big or small.

Happy planting!

Explore the map

Start over with a new location

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Star Wars’ Expanded Universe helped rescue Phantom Menace and the prequel trilogy

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Star Wars: The Phantom Menace is 25 years old and back in theaters for Star Wars Day (“May the 4th be with you”), inevitably setting off a new round of debate about the movie, the prequel trilogy as a whole, and the current, sometimes frustrating, state of Star Wars media. Though The Phantom Menace has been heavily criticized, it’s also been re-examined and even embraced over the past few decades. There are memes that celebrate the highly dramatic dialogue and direct references in tentpoles like Solo. The kids who grew up with the prequels as their main Star Wars movies have spoken up to defend them.

But arguably, what really vindicated the prequel trilogy was the spin-off culture. The animated series, books, comics, and everything else tying into the expanded canon made good on the promises delivered in the prequels’ seven hours of CG-filled adventure. The Phantom Menace, and later Attack of the Clones, introduced a political conspiracy that spanned every corner of the Star Wars universe, a corrupt government meshing with a somewhat clueless Jedi Order. In an attempt at reasonable runtimes, the movies don’t go that deep with the Jedi’s request for a clone army, or interesting characters like Darth Maul, Mace Windu, and Count Dooku, who all meet early demises. But the genius of Lucas’ plans — anticipated or accidental — is that the movies sparked creativity in other creators.

In 2014, shortly after the acquisition of Lucasfilm, Disney rebranded most “Expanded Universe” media as “Legends” content, with only a handful of stories and lore from outside of the movies surviving the purge. Still, both departed and surviving EU enhance the prequels.

One notable book that didn’t survive the new post-Disney canon is James Luceno’s Darth Plagueis, which took one of the most important yet unknown figures of the prequels and gave us a complete story that fills plenty of the blanks. The novel dealt with the Sith lord Darth Plagueis, hinted in Revenge of the Sith to be Darth Sidious’ master, and a being who could manipulate midichlorians to create life. The novel tells the story of Plagueis’ training of a teenage Palpatine, his arc to become a politician, and how the duo planned the creation of a clone army, and with that the Clone Wars itself.

Though the novel is no longer canon, the idea that Palpatine and his master planned everything about the Clone Wars in order to gain power has been explored in other comics and novels, like Luceno’s own Tarkin from 2014. Palpatine in the movies was meant to be this mastermind who was ten steps ahead of everyone, but we didn’t really see him do that much until Revenge of the Sith. Likewise, we are told vague statements about corruption and the “bureaucrats” in charge of the Senate, but in books we finally started to see how much the senator from Naboo changed the course of history in the galaxy. Tarkin illustrated the damaged political system, and how easy it was for Palpatine to manipulate it to his favor, something that fleshed out the hooded figure formerly known just as “The Emperor” into a cunning man everyone underestimated until it was too late.

The expanded canon also shines a new light on the Jedi Order better than the movies ever could. We knew from the original trilogy that the Jedi had all but disappeared; the prequels showed them to be a naïve, strict organization that was unable to prevent its downfall.

The novels Master & Apprentice by Claudia Gray and the audiobook Dooku: Jedi Lost by Cavan Scott focus on why some Jedi in the galaxy became disillusioned by the Order, and its close ties to the Republic. Master & Apprentice follows Qui-Gon Jinn as he welcomes Obi-Wan Kenobi as his apprentice, fleshing out some themes from the movies, like slavery in the galaxy and the Jedi Order’s role in galactic politics. The novel shows that Qui-Gon was constantly questioning whether the Jedi were more than the chancellor’s police force, and the nature of “balance” in the Force.

The Phantom Menace introduced the idea of Jedi as something akin to the United Nations’ Peacekeeping Forces, unable to intervene without full authority from the Republic, and expected to always be neutral. But how are they supposed to protect the light side of the Force, which lives inside all living creatures, if they can’t intervene in wars or end slavery? The current EU books confront the contradictions that pushed away members like Count Dooku and, eventually, Anakin.

When it comes to the comic books, the anthology run Age of Republic shines new light on the characters we know from the prequels. The Qui-Gon issue expands on the story from Master & Apprentice where the Jedi master was becoming obsessed with prophecies and finding true balance in the force, which he thinks the Jedi Order can’t achieve if they stay so rigid.

There’s also Obi-Wan and Anakin, written by Charles Soule, which explores the relationship between Obi-Wan and Anakin and the 10 years between Episodes I and II, carving out the brotherly bond that formed between the two Jedi. The Darth Maul miniseries focuses on Maul’s insatiable hunger to kill of Jedi, and his frustration over being forbidden to engage in combat before the events of The Phantom Menace, something that further sends him to the dark side of the Force, even if he wonders what the light has to offer.

Then there’s The Clone Wars, one of the few bits of media that wasn’t de-canonized before The Force Awakens was released. What made the animated series special from the get-go is that it seemed like everyone involved knew that viewers were pretty negative about most of the characters in the prequels, so they took it to heart to flesh them out and give them enough depth to make us love them just as much as Luke, Leia, and Han.

From the first season, The Clone Wars showed us the impact the conflict had on the entire Star Wars universe. We meet kids who were orphaned by the war, see how the criminal underworld thrived in a war setting, and note why most planetary populations hesitated to join the war effort — which kicked off rebellions in some regions. While the series was primarily aimed at kids, there was some dark and mature material at display that showed the horrors of war and the human cost of it.

One of the best parts of the series was getting to know the faceless clone army that was introduced in the movies. We first meet Domino Squad in training, then follow them through their trials and tribulations in the field of battle. The Umbara arc best exemplifies what made The Clone Wars so good. The four-episode story follows the Domino Squad and the larger 501st Legion as they embark on a deadly mission to take the capital of Umbara, and watches as tension rises between the clones and their new and reckless commander, Jedi Pong Krell. Gritty and frank about the casualties of war, the series still found room to give the clones personalities, despite all looking the same.

The animated series also did a better job of tying up loose ends. Remember that deleted scene from Revenge of the Sith where Padmé basically founds the Rebel Alliance? The Clone Wars shows there was resistance in several worlds that opposed the war, and what the Republic was doing. This included the introduction of Saw Gerrera, who played a key part in the live-action Rogue One. There was also the re-introduction of Darth Maul, who came back to life in the series, with much more than three lines of dialogue.

When it came to filling in the gaps from the prequels, The Clone Wars also gave fans their first canonical look at the infamous Sifo-Dyas in the episode “The Lost One,” which dealt with the conspiracy surrounding the creation of the clone army. In that same last season, the series showed how the Emperor was able to control the clones with Order 66, giving us a backstory for the devastating order.

In the end, for many fans, The Clone Wars succeeded where the prequels did not by making the audience care about Anakin Skywalker’s journey. The arrogant, bratty Jedi was given more dimension, and his story became that of a man caught between the light and dark sides of the Force. We witnessed his constant struggles with the dark side, his fear of loss, his anger and resentment toward the world, the pressures of being a Jedi, and how it all made him the perfect target for Palpatine’s manipulation. The series provided a deeper, more complex look at the character and made his shift into Darth Vader logical, with much more impact.

The Phantom Menace is 25 years old, but the prequel era feels fresher than ever. The gripes mounted over two decades have been challenged, inverted, and matured by the ever-expanding EU. Fear over the prequels leads to anger, anger leads to hate, and hate leads to suffering — but most of that could be alleviated by picking up the right book.

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How ‘Star Wars’ Fan Edits Saved the Original Movies

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Ahmed Best, the Actor Behind Jar Jar Binks, Is Proud of His ‘Star Wars’ Legacy

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