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$60M and 7 federal agencies required to stage Trump's UFC fight at White House

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President Donald Trump’s planned UFC fight on the White House’s South Lawn has required a monumental effort from more than seven federal agencies, hundreds of staff working onsite daily and at least $60 million, according to a legal filing that offers a glimpse into the preparations.

The event is part of the 250th anniversary of America’s founding, and is scheduled for the weekend with the main attraction — seven mixed martial arts matches — on Sunday.

That is, if a judge doesn’t halt the proceedings, which is sought by two Virginia residents in a federal lawsuit against the National Park Service, which oversees the South Lawn.

The agency filed a rebuff of the request Tuesday in court, and, in it, laid out the operations for the event.

“Well over $60 million and tens of thousands of hours of labor have been expended,” the document read, adding that the money came from the UFC and groups affiliated with it.

The Octagon

It’s the eight-sided cage that surrounds the sometimes bloodied combatants and sits at the center of the constructed arena on the South Lawn.

The arena is expected to hold 4,000 spectators, with another 120,000 visitors — who swung tickets from an online lottery — anticipated to watch from the nearby Ellipse.

The installation began May 20, and the Secret Service worked with the UFC to screen between 20 and 30 trucks of equipment — as well as between “700 and 900” staff — that came in daily for the installation.

The document did not specify the extent of government resources spent on the project, but said seven agencies, including Homeland Security and the Federal Aviation Administration, have “allocated significant resources and manpower.”

The schedule

It’ll kick off Saturday with a ceremonial weigh-in at the Ellipse, followed by a concert by country musicians The Zac Brown Band.

A UFC Freedom 250 Fan Fest will be ongoing through the weekend, with “interactive experiences,” live shows, celebrity appearances, “exclusive on-stage moments,” meet and greets, live music and interviews with the athletes.

Sunday night is when the seven bouts kick off. At the close, Trump is scheduled to fly to France for the G7 summit.

Disassembly of the installations will begin the next day, and they are expected to be entirely removed by June 23.

The athletes’ Epsom salt baths

There are 14 athletes competing, and their training is rigorous.

Preparations start months in advance, working toward more intense weight cutting and diet alteration in the final week that can include fasting, extreme sauna use and hot Epsom salt baths.

They could be shaving as many as 20 pounds before weigh-ins, which are designed to keep the competition fair between similarly weighted combatants.

Lawsuit calls it ‘corrupt’

It was filed Saturday by the Public Integrity Project on behalf of the two Virginia residents and argues that Trump’s authorization of the event violated National Park Service regulations prohibiting sporting events on federal parklands.

One of the attorneys, Brendan Ballou, characterized it as a “corrupt use of our most sacred national monuments for private gain.”

The National Park Service pushed back on that claim, but also detailed the event’s preparations to make a point.

“All these hopes could be dashed at the very last moment,” it read, “by the whim of two people who believe they have superior taste and want to spoil the event for everyone else.”

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chrisamico
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Boston, MA
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This Is What Happened To The Game You Love

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FIRST THINGS FIRST

Welcome to Open Note Grappling.

Every Tuesday morning I send out a breakdown of the best combat sports action. In less than 10 minutes you'll learn how the top fighters win and anything else fighters, martial artists, and fight fans need to know.

The UFC won. They fought back from the brink of bankruptcy to get a sport regulated and broadcast a fight from the White House lawn. Today we’re going to walk the winding road of what could turn out to be a pyrrhic victory.

Before we get started I wanted to shoutout this week’s sponsor The Daily Upside! Click the image below to get real global financial news with none of the panic.

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What's In Today's Letter?

UFC FREEDOM 250
Fights On The Lawn

And I must face the ugly fact about myself that I am here because I like boxing more than I dislike it, and I suppose those men are in the ring because they like it, too, and, more important, like me, need to like it.

Gerald Early in Ringworld

Around 1905 Theodore Roosevelt decided that his work as the President was getting in the way of his training. He installed mats in the White House basement to remedy the situation.

Roosevelt would religiously practice boxing, wrestling, and jiujitsu. He trained so hard and so often that he blinded himself in one eye. Roosevelt would profess his love of combat by bestowing the following line on our community:

"The art of jiu-jitsu is worth more in every way than all of our athletics combined.”

Maybe Donald Trump knows this. Maybe that’s why he’s allowing Dana White and the UFC to erect a stadium on the White House lawn this Sunday.

Or, maybe, White is able promote a fight for the President’s birthday because his company allowed Trump to launder his image so he could resume his temper tantrum of a presidency and use the office’s influence to manipulate the financial system and collect billions of dollars through insider trading.

If you told me that the barely legal sport I fell in love with as a teenager would make its way to the White House and become a national spectacle I would have laughed out from my bright red UFC hoodie. In retrospect I can only see the event as an inevitability.

The UFC’s success in creating an entertainment category and inserting itself into sports, culture, and politics can not be overlooked. And understanding the UFC’s success is critical to understanding how power games are won before the other teams even knows they’re competing.

Want to understand The United States of America? Watch combat sports.

Where else can you see people of all races, creeds, and intellectual flavors fight for a place on the world stage to better themselves and their children and their children’s children? That’s why I fell in love with fighting. That’s what it is supposed to be about.

Then you follow fighting for long enough and you learn about the reality of contracts, the unserious world of “unbiased” rankings and matchmakers, and the precious modern prize of site fees and you say, “I thought this was about who’s the best?” It is, as long as your definition of best is something like biggest cash creating moment.

What powers fighting is the same thing that drives our current culture. Attention.

Purists pray to see the best take on the best. Realists know that doesn’t put asses in seats.

You need contracts to ensure fighters fight.
You accept matchmakers’ existence because someone needs to pit contracted athletes against one another.
You learn site fees put money back into the business that should be paying the fighters more and more.

The sad thought that every real fan has to grapple with is they are the mark buying the ticket to see people bludgeon one another. You hope the men and women accepting the punishment are rewarded fairly for their contributions to the entertainment sphere. You tell yourself you tolerate it because you enjoy the craft. You love the technique. You play the games and you want to know how to win them.

Fair weather fans leave the arenas’ seats as soon as enough is enough. But hardcore fight fans trick themselves into thinking they get something else from the sport. Something beyond the psychotic vision born of a wannabe boxing manager’s thirst for power and influence.

If you want to know how one boy from the North East managed to become one of the most influential men in America keep reading. Just don’t expect the story to walk a straight line.

HUMAN COCKFIGHTING
The First Rule of Fight Club Is You Tell Everyone About Fight Club

Combat sports were, and still are, regulated state by state through boxing commissions. There was no legal framework addressing mixed martial arts in the United States before the UFC existed. The sport had no promoters, no revenue streams, and no regulatory classification.

WOW Promotions and Semaphore Entertainment Group (SEG) produced the first event at McNichols Sports Arena in Denver, Colorado on November 12, 1993. The event was delivered directly to consumers via pay-per-view. The UFC continued like this in an unregulated space until 1996. Then New York became the first state to enact legislation that legalized professional MMA fights in the United States. That’s right around the time that American mixed martial arts and the UFC met their first major road block.

Senator John McCain launched a campaign against MMA. We have him to thank for the term "human cockfighting". He sent letters to the governors of all 50 US states asking them to prohibit the sport.

36 states enacted laws that banned "no-holds-barred" fighting. The New York legislature passed a bill that banned professional MMA fights just one year after legalizing professional MMA. The UFC had almost no means of hosting or broadcasting events and they were running out of money.

How did they climb out of that chasm? People like me. Chronically online fans.

The UFC was dying. The larger sport of MMA was not. Frankly, the most interesting action in martial arts was happening outside of the US in Japan.

Shootboxing, RINGS, Shooto, and Pancrase were all promoting professional contests before the UFC was. The rules were not uniform and to do a thorough explanation of every divergence between these promotions would be a book in and of itself. You just need to understand that these oversees organizations were fostering a live audience that the promotion PRIDE FC would capitalize on.

PRIDE was the biggest spectacle in MMA. Ever. To this day 2002’s PRIDE Shockwave (co-promoted with K1) is the most well attended mixed martial arts fight with 91,107 attendees. That many interested people meant there was plenty of talk online. That chat was, and still is, hosted on message boards like The Underground, Sherdog, and others.

John McCain thought he stopped the UFC and MMA in the USA by destroying the distribution. He didn’t understand that technology was evolving to solve this problem.

BitTorrent and peer-to-peer networks became the informal distribution layer for MMA content. Private communities like MMATorrents, MMA-Tracker, and XtremeWrestlingTorrents formed and fostered hoarding fight footage to create digital archives.

Piracy? Sure. But hardly anyone cared that an informal amateur hacker group was keeping the fighting spectacle we know as mixed martial arts from dying in the USA.

Then came another problem. People not like me.

I’m a hardcore fan. An addict. I gotta train, watch, and teach this stuff to keep my life in order.

Most people are not addicts. Most people don’t know the difference between MMA and the UFC. They don’t care because they think fighting and the people obsessed with it are weird, if not outright insane.

That meant me and the UFC were fighting a hard uphill battle through the 2000’s to get people to think we weren’t weird for enjoying fighting and that you should give fighting a chance because people exactly like you are already into it.

WE’RE NOT SO DIFFERENT
If You Do Watch, You’ll See We’re Actually Just Like You

I’m going to show you a picture of a man. I want you to guess his job.

If you guessed actor because you thought this guy was a young Jim Carrey you’d be wrong. If you guessed fighter you’d only be half right.

The guy above, Rich “Ace” Franklin, was a math teacher. And if you don’t know that, you probably avoided the UFC’s marketing machine through the early 2000’s.

When mixed martial arts were misunderstood, Rich Franklin was a great example of what a mixed martial artist really was. I think the thing about Rich that made Rich stand out is he was a school teacher. At the time, you know, people had this idea of what they thought UFC Fighter would like, would act like, Rich blew all that out of the water.

The UFC started out as a No-Holds-Barred one night tournament. That earned them the ire of John McCain and his label, “human cockfighting”.

Cockfighting is illegal. Human cockfighting won’t be far behind if it ever gets regulated.

The UFC didn’t want that label so they rushed to get some type of recognition and regulation in the mid 90’s so they could continue to operate. The UFC started a war on two fronts. They fought to win the hearts and minds of the plebes, patricians, and, most importantly, politicians.

That’s why they went out of their way to tell everyone Franklin was a math teacher. Every time Chuck Liddell’s mohawk and tattooed head were on screen, the UFC was quick to remind us that he graduated from California Polytechnic University with a degree in accounting!

They were signaling that he, like you, is civilized.

You might think these people are scary but they’re a lot more similar to you than you can imagine. The fighting thing is basically just a hobby. A way to express their artistry. And you can understand that even if you don’t engage in the same pursuits that they do. That’s why you should watch.

MMA fighting was sold as a display of human will, technical mastery, and artistic flair.

This is martial arts marketing 101. They’re for everyone so anyone, including women, men, and skinny twerps, can learn them and use them to better their life.

BIG TENT SPORTS
Fighting Is Egalitarian

It’s hard to argue that the UFC is less egalitarian than other sports. Think about it like this, what other organizations promote men and women together? What other major sports even have them do the same activity?

The WNBA uses a different ball, rules, and court.
The MLB sponsors the Athletes Unlimited Softball League (AUSL) instead of having a women’s baseball organization.
If you seriously want to discuss women’s tackle football you first have to look past the hilariously dumb and retrograde Lingerie Football League.

The UFC didn’t add women to the organization until UFC 157 in 2013. When they did, the card was headlined by Ronda Rousey and Liz Carmouche. Rousey went on to become one of the highest paid fighters ever and she recently came out of retirement to headline Netflix’s first MMA card. That event ended as the most watched MMA fight in American history.

Carmouche, the other half of the UFC’s first ever women’s fight, is openly gay. The woman who usurped Rousey’s claim as the UFC’s best WMMA fighter, Amanda Nunes, spent most of her time as a champion married to another woman in the UFC. Even as far back as 2009 Dana White was saying,

I know. My PR department has been trying to get me in Out Magazine for years because of my opinion on gay marriage. I think people should be able to marry whoever the [expletive] they want. I'll tell anybody that. And I believe that when a gay person holds a job, they should absolutely get benefits for both people in the relationship just like any other regular married couple. Who the [expletive] is anybody to judge or tell another person how to live their life? I'm not into that. That's absolutely [expletive] ridiculous. No one has any right to do that to people, [expletive] that s---.

Dana White in ESPN

Outside of gender and sexual orientation, what other sport has high profile athletes from every corner of the world? America, Kyrgyzstan, Myanmar, Siberia, Dagestan, Australia, New Zealand, and The United Kingdom all currently have a UFC champion. Half of those regions have never even put an athlete into the NBA, MLB, or NFL.

To say that the UFC and mixed martial arts more broadly doesn’t have representation from all walks of life is ludicrous. That’s why it’s so sad to see the turn the organization is taking.

IF YOU DON’T LIKE IT, DON’T WATCH
Enemies Make Dollars

Dana White knew that mixed martial arts and the UFC could turn into one of the biggest spectacles in the world. He convinced the financially necessary Fertitta brothers of that, they made it his job to tell everyone about the UFC, and he did not care if you listened to him or not.

There’s a marketing cliche that says if everyone is your customer, no one is. White exudes that. If you love him, or, as is more likely, hate him, he does not care what you think about him or his business because he knows someone next to you will love the punches he’s peddling.

This was exactly the leader that the UFC needed in its nascency. Not just a fighter, but a pressure fighter. A person who goes forward until their opponent flinches, folds, and he can run over them.

“If you don’t like it, and you’re not into it, f— it—don’t watch it,” he says. “I don’t like golf. You know what I do? I don’t f—— watch it! What’s golf? A bunch of rich dicks walking around in stupid clothes and hitting a f—— ball. If we stopped that s—, we could build housing for people who can’t afford it on that land. And you have a problem with UFC? Come on, man. Everyone’s gonna have their opinions. I’m not gonna change that.”

White occasionally made unforced errors like every other confident pressure fighter.

I just heard there was another absolutely fucking retarded story written by Loretta Hunt. Hey Loretta, if you’re going to write a story, you fucking moron, at least make sure its fucking true and you have some facts. And if you’re going to put some fucking quotes in there, get some quotes who at least have the fucking balls to put their fucking name on it. Whoever gave you that quote is a pussy, and a fucking faggot, and a fucking liar, you fucking dumb bitch. Fuck you Loretta Hunt.

This quote above is actually what sparked the earlier quote where White claimed his PR Team wants him to do an interview with GLAAD.

Instead of getting in GLAAD or sparring with every journalist, White would often just push people out of the UFC’s orbit.

White blacklisted Josh Gross after Gross rejected his offer to become the editor for the UFC’s website, revealed the finalists of season 4 of The Ultimate Fighter, and wrote an open letter to White asking that he fix the fighters’ steroid problems and thuggish images.

White and the UFC fought against “fake news” before Donald Trump cemented that phrase into our lexicon forever. They portrayed every media member they didn’t like as losers who have never and could never accomplish anything.

White and the UFC started inviting influencers and content creators to replace the credentialed unbiased journalists you expect at pro sports events. They could make videos, promote the events, and they wouldn’t question the organization giving them good tickets to said events in fear of losing opportunities to create monetizable content about their lavish life.

What the UFC was doing was creating a culture of total control.

COMPETITION THRILLS MONOPOLIES KILL
The UFC’s Success Steals From A Sport

When the UFC was fighting for relevancy, a few other organizations were putting on some of the best fights you’ll ever see.

PRIDE was dominating in Japan and many fans thought their heavyweights and light heavyweights were the best in the sport. Names like Fedor Emelianenko, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, Shogun Rua, and Wanderlei Silva were just some of the stars carrying their brand.

On the other end of the world and weight divisions, WEC was leading the charge. Demetrious Johnson, Dominick Cruz, Jose Aldo, and Anthony Pettis are only a few of the men who fought there and later became UFC champions.

Both of these organizations were purchase by the UFC in 2006 and 2007. Alongside them came World Fighting Alliance, International Fight League’s assets, and Strikeforce all were folded under the UFC’s parent company Zuffa.

Having so many great fighters under one roof makes for a convenient viewing experience but it leaves fighters without many options to fight elsewhere. That meant they had little leverage in contract negotiations. It was the UFC’s way or the highway and rhe coming years would make the UFC’s way that much harder.

For the majority of MMA’s existence UFC fighters earned extra cash by accepting uniform sponsors. Companies could strap a logo on fighters’ shorts in exchange for additional compensation. This made the athletes’ clothing look not uniform.

Brendan Schaub said,

I make two times as much money on sponsors than I do on what the UFC pays me. Six of my sponsors have already bailed because the Reebok deal is going up.

After creating an organization for everyone to watch that allowed anyone to compete in to improve their life, the UFC bought competitors and removed their contracted athletes means of making additional money so they would be more desperate to fight. Dana Whit even spelled out his logic in a Stanford Business School lecture.

Think about this. Think about every person in this room right now. If I guaranteed you all $37 million. Guaranteed. Guarantee you $37 million dollars. Guess what you’re going to do? Not much.

FINANCIALIZATION OVER FIGHTERS AND FANS
The Money Makes Its Way Out Of The Sport

In 2016 the UFC sold for just north of $4 billion. That was the largest transaction in professional sports history. Since then there has been a gradual degradation in fight promotion.

Before 2016 the UFC was run by fanatics. A name you don’t hear often and a face you never see was largely responsible for the UFC we loved. Joe Silva. The tyrannical matchmaker’s story is emblematic of the UFC’s early days.

He had no experience

PARTNERS TO RIVALS TO NECESSARY ALLIANCES
MMA Moves On To Politics

If you listen to Dana White explain his relationship with Donald Trump he’ll call him a friend. A once necessary ally that saved his company and the sport in America.

Arenas around the world refused to host our events. Nobody took us seriously. Nobody. Except Donald Trump. Donald was the first guy that recognized the potential that we saw in the UFC.

That’s not exactly the whole story.

It’s true that Trump hosted three UFC events between 2000 and 2001 at his Taj Mahal Casino. The first of those events, UFC 30, was the first event that White and the Fertitta brothers promoted after buying the company. But the UFC also hosted 23 events between 2000-2004 and Trump even tried to compete with the UFC after the success of The Ultimate Fighter reality show.

Trump, Michael Cohen, and Tom Atencio started a promotion called Affliction in 2008. They signed former UFC champions Tim Sylvia, Josh Barnett, Andrei Arlovski, and Vitor Belfort, plus future champ Robbie Lawler. It was a promotion centered around the all-time great Fedor Emelianenko. The fighter who former UFC Heavyweight and Light Heavyweight Champion Randy Couture tried to exit the UFC in hopes of fighting.

Trump bragged about how Affliction was going to take over MMA, “All the fighters want to be with us, and I think it probably will take over.”

It didn’t.

Before Affliction put on their third event, Josh Barnett tested positive for a banned substance. He was unable to headline the card against Fedor and Trump’s attempt at promoting MMA was dead and gone much to the delight of White.

Trump mostly stayed out of MMA until he decided to run for President. Then he began sitting cage-side at UFC events to appeal to more young men that felt disenfranchised by previous political administrations.

Trump got elected in 2016 and 2024 but that wasn’t the end of the UFC’s utility for him. He appeared cage side at UFC 264 in July, several months after January 6th’s attack on the capitol. He was met with boos and cheers but it was clear he had people in his corner. White would even introduce Trump at 2024’s Republican National Convention.

Like all good relationships, this one has plenty of ongoing reciprocity.

Paramount+ is the UFC’s current streaming partner in the USA and Canada. 7 years of broadcasting cost them $7.7 billion dollars. Paramount was only able to afford that price after Trump’s FCC approved their merger with Skydance 18 days before the transaction. Trump has since taken additional interest in the success of the UFC by purchasing stock options in the UFC’s parent company ahead of the event on his birthday. An event that might not even be legal.

A recent lawsuit filed against UFC Freedom 250 argues that the UFC and its partners are being allowed to profit from access to some of the nation's federal sites which means it does not qualify for special authorization under temporary rules adopted for America's 250th anniversary celebrations.

You just can’t look at the UFC’s alliance with Trump objectively and think it will continue to be a net positive for the company. He literally has the lowest approval rating of any other president at this point in their term. He sucks and it sucks that the UFC is joined with him at the hip. With the event at the White House approaching, you do need to remember that mixed martial arts is bigger than this weekend.

MIXED MARTIAL ARTS ARE FOR EVERYONE
Fight For Something Better

In case it’s not obvious, I love mixed martial arts. Talking, training, and watching fighting has taken most of my time since I was a teenager. And because the UFC makes up the majority of MMA, I can’t help but have a special place in my heart for the company that has given me so much joy and helped define the activity that gave my life some direction.

When I was 17 I was briefly homeless. I like to say I was homeless-light. I hate the term “unhoused” but I have to acknowledge it perfectly explains what happened to me.

My father was unable to pay the mortgage of the home that I slept in. I watched police change the locks on our front door. I was forced to face up to his eviction notice and my housing was undone.

I was able to live at my best friend’s house. His dad had a spare bedroom and I had a way to pay for my own food so I wasn’t really in the way. I was as happy as a hermit crab finding a more spacious shell. But really my happiness had more to do with where I was when I wasn’t in my temporary home. My gym, Combat Fitness.

Combat Fitness still inhabits a warehouse in Concord, California. They had bags to hit, people to spar with, and real role models to learn from.

I spent hours of my days there. I found passion in a physical struggle. It lit a fire in me and told me I don’t have accept whatever position I find myself in, in and out of a ring. And I can’t help but see a version of my experience in people across the world.

Martial arts can satisfy when I see as a necessary experience. A type of initiation ritual into the beginning of adulthood. The accepting of responsibility for your development.

If you want to get better you have to train. You have to take it on the chin and come back to get better. You have to care enough to actually work for something.

Dojos, gyms, and rings around the world can create places where particularly at risk youth can mature. With professional combat sports, these people can find means of turning their skills into money. They can sell their skills to gyms, promoters, and people wanting to learn from and be entertained by them.

The writer Gerald Early wrote,

To ban boxing would not prevent the creation of boxers since that process, that world would remain intact. …

And, after all, these men are selling their ability to the highest bidder, getting whatever the market will bear. Professional boxing is capitalism’s psychotic vision.

Gerald Early in Ringworld

Man if Early could see the UFC.

Political corruption. Market consolidation. Tailored suits taking out the fans and craftsman that made the company and its product special. They really have take the psychotic vision and ran with it.

But I am here to say that much like America is bigger than Donald Trump, combat sports exist outside of the UFC.

The three highest attended events to this day are PRIDE Shockwave, OKTAGON 62, and KSW 39. All three of those events happened in different years and countries. The market for mixed martial arts exists and it is ready for more players.

We have new people putting new money into MMA, exquisite pageantry from promotions like Rizin, European promotions like Oktagon and KSW are selling out stadiums, and the most watched MMA fight in American history was not promoted by the UFC. I mean, even the PFL is in the middle of contract negotiations for a new streaming partner and they’re coming to my town soon so I will be in attendance.

I’m not self-righteous enough to pretend that fighting professionally or even training for fun is solely some virtuous pursuit. It’s bloody. It can be gross. And, as I hope you can see from above, many of the people in it are ripe for exploitation.

But combat sports and martial arts have, and will continue to, benefit countless disenfranchised people so I’m not going to let one guy’s egomaniacal birthday party ruin my sport. And I’m definitely not ready to secede from what I love.

The man that founded the martial art that the Gracies adapted, rebranded, and used to win UFC 1 described the two principles of his system as,

1st. Whatever be the object, the best way of attaining it shall be the maximum or the highest efficient use of mental and physical energy directed to that aim.
2nd. The harmony and progress of a body, consisting as it does of different individuals, however few or many the number of those individuals may be, can best be kept and attained by mutual aid and concession.

Highest efficient use of energy for mutual aid. That’s what martial arts, combat sports, and MMA are about at their core. I will die on that hill whether it’s during this administration or next.

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Don’t wait. Click on the link below so you can get get stronger with us today.

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chrisamico
21 hours ago
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A deadly Boston school bus crash is among dozens missing from a company's federal safety record

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On the day 5-year-old Lens Joseph was killed by a Boston Public Schools bus last year, the driver had already struck a postal truck, ignored a stop sign and missed several stops, prosecutors said. When he got to Lens’ house, he dropped him off on the wrong side of the street and then ran over the kindergartner as he crossed in front of the bus.

Transdev, a multinational company that has been the city’s sole bus contractor since 2013, hired and trained the driver of the bus that killed Lens. Yet a federal safety database shows no sign that the company was involved in the April 2025 crash. WBUR and ProPublica found at least 60 fatal Transdev crashes in the last decade, but the federal database shows only 18 under the company’s name. That means 42 fatal crashes are not identified as Transdev’s.

(Illustration by Shoshana Gordon/ProPublica. Source images: Jesse Costa/WBUR, Alyssa Sieb via Nappy, PatrickRich via Flickr)

The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), which oversees commercial motor vehicles, runs the database and relies on the information in it as part of a national early-warning system to identify which companies to investigate or take off the road entirely.

This missing information is important because the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, which oversees commercial motor vehicles, relies on it to pinpoint unsafe companies.

But the process the agency uses to collect information is faulty: It identifies only a fraction of a company’s fatal crashes.

As a result, the full safety record of Transdev, one of the largest private operators of public transit in the U.S., remains a secret to regulators, the public and the local government agencies that might award it a contract.

“That is a serious, serious gap in safety,” said Peter Kurdock, general counsel with Advocates for Highway and Auto Safety, a nonprofit that promotes transportation safety and has pushed for improvements in crash data for years. “And it’s a serious, serious shortcoming when it comes to the regulation of these carriers by FMCSA.”

The deadly crashes associated with Transdev span at least 16 states and involve pedestrians, at least two bicyclists and other vehicles. Lens’ death and at least two others have resulted in criminal charges against the bus drivers. Transdev did not provide comment on any specific crash.


Help further our reporting on bus crashes

If you are a current or former FMCSA employee, or someone in the industry with information about the agency or the safety of school buses, transit buses or motor coaches, our team wants to hear from you. Willoughby Mariano can be reached by phone at 617-358-0802, Signal at willoughbymariano.55 and email at <a href="mailto:wmariano@bu.edu">wmariano@bu.edu</a>.


The crash data feeds into FMCSA’s online Safety Measurement System, which makes safety records public for bus companies nationwide. Instead of listing Transdev, that data often lists collisions under the government agency that hired Transdev or the name of a company it acquired. Also, when crashes are listed under other names, companies that oversee the buses involved are not required to claim the collisions. The agency’s instructions for how to determine the motor carrier involved in a crash are interpreted differently by police who respond to the scene, the news organizations found.

Based in France, Transdev has vast U.S. operations. It says it holds contracts in busing, light rail and other forms of public transit in 46 states, plus Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico. The multibillion-dollar company employs more than 30,000 people nationally. Transdev’s only school bus contract is with Boston Public Schools.

Esaie Joseph wipes away tears as he talks about the April 2025 death of his son Lens Joseph, 5, who was run over by a Boston Public Schools bus. “The first thing I hope is justice for him,” Joseph said.Esaie Joseph holds a pin made in memory of his son Lens. (Jesse Costa/WBUR)

Transdev U.S. CEO Laura Hendricks declined an interview. In a written statement, Transdev said it complies with “federally mandated reporting standards.”

“Transparency and continuous improvement are central to our safety approach, and we work closely with oversight agencies and our clients to ensure our practices meet or exceed expectations,” the statement said.

The statement did not respond to questions about why Transdev did not ensure crashes the company was involved in were logged as part of its safety record. It did stress that reporting crashes is the responsibility of law enforcement.

At the publications’ request, Transdev reviewed lists of the crashes that reporters tied to the company. Transdev confirmed that most of them matched with collisions in their records but did not have records for all of them.

The FMCSA did not respond to requests to interview Derek Barrs, the head of the agency, or emails with a list of questions.

Other than the federal database, there are few ways to connect crashes to particular bus companies. A different database, run by the Federal Transit Administration, records transit crashes but doesn’t connect them to contractors. Separately, FMCSA requires all bus companies to keep an internal register of how many serious crashes take place during their operations. However, those records are not open to the public, and companies are not obligated to submit the information to regulators unless they ask for it. Transdev declined the publications’ request for its register.

So while Transdev may know about its own collisions, federal agencies and the public often don’t.

Darin Jones, a former FMCSA Midwest field administrator, spent more than 35 years in federal transportation safety and often oversaw investigations. He said investigators are supposed to consider a company’s serious crashes as part of their assessment. If many are logged inconsistently, they cannot determine whether Transdev or any other company is operating safely.

“The knowledge of this motor carrier’s operation, any motor carrier’s operation, is critical,” said Jones. “If you don’t have the full picture of an operation, how do you truly know what’s going on?”

At least in Boston, Transdev appears to have had no serious school bus crashes over 10 years. But that’s not true. WBUR and ProPublica uncovered at least 71 serious crashes involving the company that weren’t under its name.

Kurdock says the FMCSA needs to fix its safety data, especially in Boston.

“The agency needs to be much more proactive in ensuring that the data they do have is accurate, even more so when you’re talking about a carrier that is operating a transportation service for schoolchildren,” Kurdock said. “If there is one bipartisan issue left here in Washington, D.C., it’s that schoolchildren should have a safe ride.”


Nurse, cyclist among those killed

When a crash happens, local law enforcement fill out accident reports that document the location, identities of the drivers and companies involved. This information becomes part of the federal safety database and helps regulators connect a crash to a particular company.

But the news organizations found multiple examples where that system masked the company running the bus lines. For most of these crashes, the database is also unclear on whether the drivers violated traffic laws.

In Lens’ case, the motor carrier is listed as “CITY OF BOSTON MVMB,” an abbreviation for the city’s Motor Vehicle Management Bureau, which acquires and manages municipal vehicles. There is no mention of the school district or Transdev being involved.

Another crash killed registered nurse Renée Shea in southern Massachusetts in 2017. It appears under the name of the Greater Attleboro Taunton Regional Transit Authority, not Transdev, the agency’s contractor at the time. A bus made a left-hand turn into the path of the Jeep SUV she was driving, according to a police report. The bus company’s driver, Margaret Correia, may have been distracted because she began to take off her jacket before she made her turn, the report found. She could not be reached for comment.

Correia pleaded guilty to misdemeanor negligent operation of a motor vehicle, court records show. A GATRA spokeswoman said Shea’s family received $1 million from the area transit agency’s insurer.

Charlie Shea said his ex-wife was a generous mother who had taken custody of her granddaughter.

A 2006 photo of Charlie Shea and Renée Shea, who was killed by a transit bus. He wants her death included as part of Transdev’s safety record. “It’d make them more accountable,” he said. (Courtesy Charles Shea)

As a former MBTA bus driver, Charlie Shea said he continues to be shocked by the bus driver’s actions.

Driving and taking your jacket off “ain’t a bright idea for anybody,” he said.

He said his ex-wife’s death, like all crashes, needs to be part of Transdev’s safety record.

“It’d make them more accountable,” Shea said. “They would have to use their safety records to get contracts from the state or the counties or from schools.”

Outside Massachusetts, there are dozens of other fatal Transdev crashes in the database with no mention of the company.

In a November 2023 Las Vegas crash, federal records list the Regional Transportation Commission of Southern Nevada as the motor carrier of a transit bus that killed bicyclist David Ortiz in a crosswalk. Court records state driver Johnelle Johnson, a Transdev employee, pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor vehicular manslaughter charge. A lawsuit by Ortiz’s family against Transdev and the driver was settled for an undisclosed sum.

Transdev has operated the Las Vegas-area bus system since 2023, when it acquired First Transit, which originally held the contract, the commission’s records show.

Although First Transit is now part of Transdev, at least five fatal crashes across the United States are still recorded under First Transit’s name after the acquisition.

Beyond the fatal crashes, WBUR and ProPublica also took a close look at all of Transdev’s serious, but nonfatal, crashes with Boston Public Schools. Those include crashes where any person was transported to a hospital or a vehicle was towed.

In a December 2024 crash, a bus lurched onto a sidewalk outside Curley K-8 School in the Jamaica Plain neighborhood. The bus struck an 8-year-old boy with autism and his school aide before smashing into two fences, a police report states. The crash sent both victims to the hospital with long-term injuries, their civil lawsuits against Transdev allege.

A bus camera showed that Transdev driver Vitony Laguerre’s eyes were closed and his head was back before he pressed the accelerator, police stated. He pleaded not guilty to a misdemeanor charge of negligent operation of a motor vehicle.

In December 2024, an 8-year-old boy and his school aide were struck by a school bus outside Curley K-8 School in the Jamaica Plain neighborhood. Dashcam video shows the driver, Vitony Laguerre, had his eyes closed seconds before he drove up the sidewalk and through fences. (Courtesy of Sweeney Merrigan law firm)

The federal record lists the city of Boston, not Transdev, as the carrier.

Attorneys for Laguerre and both crash victims did not comment for this story. Laguerre and Transdev denied they were negligent in the crash, according to records in an ongoing civil case.

Boston Public Schools Superintendent Mary Skipper declined an interview request. A spokesperson did not answer a list of questions, but in a written statement said that the district follows established safety protocols and has worked with Transdev over several years to improve accountability and performance.

“We will continue to work with our transportation partner to monitor performance, address issues as they arise, and ensure every student gets to and from school safely,” the statement said.


Local law enforcement takes over

The current system of collecting and publishing bus crash data began as part of a federal push for safer roads. In the early days of this work, in the 1970s and 1980s, rules put the burden on bus and truck companies to self-report serious crashes to the U.S. Department of Transportation. Each operator had to report its fatal bus crashes in person or by telephone “as soon as possible”; crashes that resulted in injuries or serious vehicle damage had to be reported in writing, and in triplicate.

But both companies and federal safety investigators complained the process was burdensome and inadequate. For one thing, investigators could not tell whether companies failed to report their accidents, said Jones, the former FMCSA regional administrator.

Regulators and traffic safety researchers thought they could do better. At the time, many states were already collecting crash information electronically from local police departments.

“Why burden the industry with reporting?” Jones said. “We had a more accurate record from the states.”

So in 1993, the federal Department of Transportation decided to end self-reporting by carriers. Today, local law enforcement agencies send their bus and truck crash information to state agencies, which submit it to FMCSA.

After investigating, a local officer must fill out a form that asks for the name of the bus company, or “carrier,” that is involved in the crash and the company’s U.S. Department of Transportation identifier. FMCSA training material recommends the officer determine which company should be included in the form by figuring out which entity “controls” or “directs” the bus.

For transit and school buses, this decision can be surprisingly complicated. Transdev employees may be behind the wheel, and the company may manage the daily operations of the buses, but the transit agencies or a school district may choose the routes. So who is in charge? In these cases, Transdev’s role often disappears in the data.

Transportation experts and former FMCSA officials said bus companies can voluntarily inform the agency that crashes under other names belong to them.

But Alex Scott, a University of Tennessee, Knoxville transportation expert, said companies rarely update the federal record, according to research he published in 2021. “There’s not really an incentive for them to account for all of their crashes,” Scott said. “If a company could just magically make them go away, of course they would.”

Boston City Councilor Erin Murphy, a former teacher for the district where Lens attended school, has become a vocal critic of how Transdev operates its buses. She was shocked when she learned from a reporter that the company is not required to take steps to ensure all its crashes are part of its federal safety record.

“Horrifying,” she said. “Why would they be able to not report accidents — one that was a fatal accident? There’s nothing worse than a fatal accident.”

“There’s not really an incentive for them to account for all of their crashes. … If a company could just magically make them go away, of course they would.”

Alex Scott, a transportation expert at University of Tennessee, Knoxville

After several passenger bus crashes with multiple fatalities, Congress passed legislation in 2012 that gave FMCSA powers to conduct more comprehensive inspections into the safety operations of bus companies.

When Transdev underwent one of these reviews in 2016, investigators uncovered what they described as “numerous crashes” that were not listed as part of the contractor’s safety record, according to the inspection report. There were enough crashes that the FMCSA planned to give Transdev a “conditional” safety rating, which would mean the company had insufficient safety procedures.

Because local police departments may not “be aware or equipped” to report crashes to the FMCSA, the carrier should report them, the report stated.

“This self reporting is required for accurate evaluation by FMCSA and the accurate safety record of the carrier,” it added.

The company successfully appealed the decision to lower its safety rating by arguing its drivers could not have prevented many of the crashes investigators uncovered.

FMCSA investigators urged Transdev to report to the agency when its role in a crash is not reflected in safety data, yet the company’s name continues to be absent from many of them. Transdev did not comment on this recommendation.


A father seeks 'justice'

Lens’ death last year became a local flashpoint, shedding new light on Transdev’s safety procedures and raising questions about its ability to keep the city’s children safe.

The driver of the school bus that killed Lens should not have been behind the wheel that day, and the bus never should have been on the road, according to information from city officials and prosecutors.

Driver Jean Charles became ineligible to operate a school bus in December 2024 after a required driving credential expired, according to a statement from Boston Mayor Michelle Wu’s office last year. But the company did not take him off the road then. In the weeks before Lens died, Charles had two minor collisions and underwent remedial training, it said, and soon returned to work.

On the day of Lens’ death, Charles began his shift without conducting a required pretrip inspection, prosecutors alleged. One of the bus’s four rear tires was flat, and a safety crossing bar was broken. Transdev is also in charge of maintenance, but it’s unclear how long the bus had these problems.

Had Charles followed procedures, the bus would have been sent for repairs, prosecutors said. And yet Charles set off on his route to UP Academy Dorchester, where Lens climbed aboard.

At 2:42 p.m., Charles dropped off Lens and his 11-year-old-cousin on the wrong side of their street. To get home, they would have to cross in front of the bus.

Transdev school bus driver Jean Charles arrives at his arraignment hearing on felony involuntary vehicular homicide in March. Charles drove the bus that ran over and killed kindergartner Lens Joseph. (Robin Lubbock/WBUR)

Neighbor Carolyn Tomlinson was inside her home cleaning windows when the cries of a child brought her outside. She followed the sound to the corner of Glenwood Avenue and Washington Street, where she saw the cousin screaming. Lens was on the ground.

“I’m looking at Lens, just lying there,” Tomlinson said. “And as a mom it broke my heart.”

Tomlinson said she dialed 911 and held the cousin in her arms to comfort her.

“I was praying with her, saying, ‘It’s going to be OK. God’s got us,’” Tomlinson said.

Lens’ father, Esaie Joseph, had parked his truck in North Carolina after a day on the road as a long-haul trucker when his brother told him about the crash in a phone call. Hours later, he got word that his boy was dead.

Lens was Joseph’s only son, and he was self-assured beyond his years, his father said in an interview with WBUR. His nickname was “smart guy.”

Every time Lens asked Joseph for a new toy, he’d begin with, “Dad, you know I’m a smart guy?” the father recalled.

Joseph has kept his son’s soccer ball and toy cars, and he smiled as he sorted through them on a recent evening: a police car, because Lens wanted to be an officer. A Spider-Man-themed car because he loved the superhero.

Esaie Joseph, Lens’ father, looks through his son’s favorite toys, which he kept after the boy’s death. He said he is suing Transdev because he wants the company to improve safety. (Jesse Costa/WBUR)

After he lost Lens, Joseph stopped driving trucks and moved with his relatives to a new neighborhood, away from the scene of the crash. He now is a driver for a city of Boston van service for seniors.

He and his family are suing Transdev and Charles, who resigned from Transdev soon after the crash. Joseph said he wants some good to come from Lens’ death, and for Transdev to operate safely.

“The first thing I hope is justice for him,” he said. “They have to care for safety so something like this will not happen again.”

Charles pleaded not guilty to felony involuntary manslaughter and other charges in March. His attorney did not respond to requests for comment.

Transdev did not comment about the crash and said the company had discussed its safety measures publicly during a Boston City Council meeting last August. The company and Charles denied in civil court filings that they were negligent or reckless.

Transdev is in the third year of its five-year, $651 million contract with Boston Public Schools and transports about 19,000 of the district’s students every school day. It is currently looking to expand in Boston, where it is one of three finalists for a multibillion-dollar commuter rail contract.

To this day, the federal record does not show that Transdev was the operator of the bus that killed Lens. Neighbor Tomlinson wants it to be part of Transdev’s safety record so regulators can hold them accountable, and agencies and school systems can understand the companies they are hiring.

“It should be visible to the ones that need it, so we can see it and keep our babies safe,” Tomlinson said.

A Boston Public Schools bus drives past a memorial where Lens Joseph was run over in April 2025 by his own school bus. (Erin Clark/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)

Christine Willmsen of WBUR and Topher Sanders of ProPublica contributed reporting.


How we analyzed Transdev’s safety record

The Motor Carrier Management Information System, maintained by FMCSA, is the only public database that tracks bus crashes nationwide and lists company names. It includes crashes involving a tow-away, injury or death. But when reporters tried to use it to search for crashes involving Transdev, we found that several deadly crashes we knew of did not show up under the carrier’s name. Through further reporting, we learned that the database often lists collisions under the name of a company tied to Transdev or under the name of the government agency that hired Transdev.

To understand where Transdev has operated, a team of reporters used company statements, procurement databases, news accounts and court records. We also searched a database of contracts with public transit agencies and found more than 100 entities that had bus-related contracts with Transdev over the past decade, including cities, regional transit authorities and universities.

WBUR and ProPublica searched in the MCMIS database for fatal crashes that occurred during time periods covered by the contracts we identified. We also included crashes listed under First Transit, a company that Transdev acquired, if the crash occurred after the acquisition. Reporters provided the lists of crashes to Transdev, Boston Public Schools and transit agencies, and used other sources to confirm that Transdev was contracted to run buses at the time of the crashes.

Ultimately, we identified 60 fatal crashes involving buses operated by Transdev from 2016 through 2025. Among these crashes, 42 were not listed under Transdev’s name in the federal database, including two that were not in the database at all.

We also searched the MCMIS data for serious crashes of buses operated by Transdev for Boston Public Schools. The public database does not specify whether a school bus was involved, so we supplemented it with crash data from the Massachusetts Department of Transportation, which does flag some crashes as involving school buses. We also used bus VIN numbers to identify school buses based on the vehicle’s manufacturer, make and model using a federal lookup tool. WBUR and ProPublica uncovered at least 71 serious Boston Public Schools crashes involving Transdev from 2016 through 2025.

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From ambition to closure: Clover's rapid rise and fall in Boston

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Clover rode a rising trend of health-conscious dining into a rapid expansion, opening dozens of brick-and-mortar stores throughout the region. But as interest in meat alternatives faded in recent years, the company was unable to maintain its lofty vision.

On Tuesday, Clover’s executives it would close its 12 remaining quick-serve restaurants and kiosks for good at the end of business on Thursday after more than 17 years.

Changing consumer tastes were only one factor in the collapse. Muir and the company’s current management team blamed Clover’s demise on a restaurant economy that has been reshaped by remote work, inflationary prices, and rising operating costs that have affected all of Boston.

But Clover’s demise, investors say, was foreshadowed for years. Documents show a visionary company squeezed by mounting financial pressures as management focused on growth.

Ingredient costs, the company said in a newsletter to customers on Tuesday night, are 30 to 50 percent more now than just two years ago.

“Our local farms are raising their prices,” Clover chief executive Julia Wrin Piper, who has led a turnaround she said has represented a “steady march toward sustainable profitability.” “We simply can’t keep up with inflationary pressures.”

About 170 people will lose their jobs, and leave a hole in the city’s restaurant scene for diners.

“It really seemed like the future of food,” said Kelly Andreoni, a longtime vegetarian and Clover fan starting in its early days. She recently returned and found the experience disappointing. The restaurant was dirty, she said, and quality wasn’t there. “We knew it wouldn’t be long before they closed.”

Justin Alpert, a Boston University professor and restaurant architect, said he regularly went to Clover for falafel. When other fast casual chains popped up that served similar food, ingredients weren’t from local farms, he said.

“Unfortunately, sustainable practices and use of quality products come at a literal cost,” said Alpert. “They chose to go down with that ship in lieu of selling out.”

Muir exited as CEO in late 2023. (He said he resigned; Piper said he was terminated.) A month later, the company filed for bankruptcy protection — emerging the following year with what it described as a clean slate and a desire to open even more stores.

Kitchen staff were hard at work at a Massachusetts Avenue Clover location in 2015.  Kitchen staff were hard at work at a Massachusetts Avenue Clover location in 2015. Matthew J. Lee

Documents filed in bankruptcy court showed Clover had about $792,000 in listed assets and about $3.85 million in liabilities. It didn’t own any of its restaurants’ real estate, and a meaningful chunk of what the company still owned — roughly $253,000 at the time — was in food and supplies.

The startup could no longer pay the leases on its new commissary in Hyde Park and several of its restaurants. It had raised $1.8 million earlier in 2023, cut payroll by 43 percent, and unsuccessfully tried to renegotiate its leases. Management also failed to secure a second round of funding that August.

Ron Shaich, the founder of Panera Bread and a Brookline native, was an early investor in Clover. When reached by text, Shaich was blunt about its demise: “I walked away many years ago from the investment when I lost faith in management and the board’s capacities, focus and decision making.”

“The results speak for themselves,” said Shaich, now a major investor whose portfolio has included fast-growing chains such as Cava and Tatte Bakery & Café.

John Pepper, who founded local fast-casual chain Boloco in 1997 and was also an early Clover investor, said he foresaw Clover’s end when he sold his shares at a 50 percent discount at a loss in 2019.

“Am I surprised? No. The structural issues were visible years ago,” said Pepper, who pointed to real estate and overhead costs as some of Clover’s biggest problems. It leased expensive storefronts that needed high volumes to work. That’s “fine when you’re growing, and have exceptionally strong-stomached backers — such as McDonalds for Chipotle — but brutal when you’re don’t have those things and things don’t go exactly according to plan."

Clover’s overhead, he said, was carrying a much bigger company than the one that actually existed.

“Once growth stalled, the math stopped working and the cuts came too slowly,” said Pepper.

Coming out of the pandemic, workers were slow to return to the office, which led to a decline in corporate catering and lunch sales. At the same time, “the cost of labor literally doubled, the cost of utilities doubled, real estate taxes in the city doubled, rents continued to escalate every year,” said Muir. “Restaurateurs find themselves with many more expenses than they ever had but less sales than they ever had.”

“It’s a difficult equation to make it all work,” he added.

Clover’s management had hoped to find a buyer that could keep some or all of the business going. Some of those conversations remain ongoing with what Muir described as a mix of potential buyers. He and Piper declined to name any of the parties.

“We are actively having these conversations that we have hope around ... especially now with the news out,” said Piper, who said she was brought in to replace Muir in 2023 because the company was facing imminent liquidation. “The company has survived a lot of hard periods, one of them we’re grappling with now.”

Piper said she informed Clover’s board, which Muir sits on, last week that “in order to operate responsibly, we had to wind-down operations.”

Muir said it was not until this week that he learned the details of when stores would actually shut down permanently.

“I didn’t know I couldn’t eat at a Clover restaurant this coming weekend until just a few days ago,” Muir.

The Clover restaurant in Harvard Square in 2011.The Clover restaurant in Harvard Square in 2011.Essdras M Suarez/Globe Staff

Megan Pileggi, Clover’s former director of human resources and development, said she was attracted to the company’s mission of sourcing from little-known local farmers.

“I really believed in it,” said Pileggi. “We all felt like we were part of something much bigger than ourselves.”

But she also saw the problems before leaving in 2019 after nearly 10 years: “We were really trying to ramp things up to go into a new markets, and like, that was an investment that wasn’t right for us.”

In August 2023, Clover closed its Copley Square. At the time, management said it was Clover’s poorest-performing location, losing $350,000 annually over the past few years. Its rent was also $350,000 a year.

Clover’s shuttering also comes as consumers move away from plant-based foods and artificial meats to focus on real meats and dairy.

Matthew Britt, a culinary professor at Johnson & Wales University, compared the restaurant industry to a roller coaster. “Things come up and down. The same goes for plant-based dining.”

“It makes you wonder if Clover got too big,” added Britt.

Muir said in 2014 that he expected Clover to one day be “more profitable than Chipotle and bigger than McDonald’s.”

On Tuesday, Muir didn’t backpedal.

“That was the ambition for the project that Clover was. That was what the world needed,” said Muir, now the CEO of El Nacho, a tortilla chip manufacturer in Waltham. “I wish we had more success getting to that.”


Alexa Gagosz can be reached at alexa.gagosz@globe.com. Follow her @alexagagosz and on Instagram @AlexaGagosz.

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chrisamico
16 days ago
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Disney erased FiveThirtyEight

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Fivey Fox by Joey Eills — Silver Bulletin illustration

Last Thursday night, I was working late, trying to put some of the finishing touches on our forthcoming World Cup model — and actually looking up an article I’d written for FiveThirtyEight in 2014 about my previous soccer model, SPI. Although the quality of the archive has gradually deteriorated since Disney shut down the site in 2025 (I left two years earlier in 2023), at least our text-based articles were mostly still there, or so I thought. Instead, I was auto-redirected to ABC News’s home page, which looked something like this:

Sometimes weird things happen on the internet late at night, so I resisted the temptation to tweet something about it. But one of my former colleagues noticed the same thing on Friday. ABC News hasn’t made any public comment that I’m aware of — they declined to make a statement to the New York Times, which wrote about FiveThirtyEight’s disappearance. It’s possible that they have something up their sleeve, I suppose. But presumably, this was either intentional or willfully neglectful. All of the former FiveThirtyEight site from my nearly decade-long tenure at ESPN/Disney/ABC is gone.1

It’s common to read things like: “what happens on the Internet stays on the Internet”, the notion being that you can never escape your digital past. But this isn’t really true. A Pew study of a random sample of Internet links conducted in October 2023 found significant “link rot”: almost 40 percent of links that had been active 10 years earlier were broken. And that’s probably an underestimate: the study was based on the Common Crawl web archive (the same one that AI labs use to train their models), which is quite comprehensive but probably contains some bias toward more prominent sites. Another study by ahrefs found a two-thirds attrition rate for web links after 11 years.

Yes, you can still access (for now) Disney-era FiveThirtyEight content via the invaluable Internet Archive, and pre-Disney-era content from The New York Times (which I partnered with from 2010 through 2013). And obviously, we’re trying to recreate some of the most popular parts of FiveThirtyEight at Silver Bulletin. The election models and polling averages are here, and new-and-improved versions of the sports models (PELE, ELWAY, COOPER) are gradually returning too.2 Galen Druke, Clare Malone and I have even been getting the old podcast crew back together for live shows.

We really do appreciate your support in the form of free or paid subscriptions.

To be clear, we’re not trying to create a full-fledged version of FiveThirtyEight. Having a smaller team gives me more time for creative work, such as writing and building models. In fact, post-Disney life is better along pretty much every quantifiable and intangible dimension.

Still, these abstractions about “link rot” don’t quite capture the feeling of seeing so much hard work erased.

200,000 hours of work erased

Here are some numbers roughly in the right ballpark: during the Disney era, which lasted about 10 years, FiveThirtyEight published about 20 stories a week. Let’s say that each story took about 20 hours to produce between research, writing, graphics and editing.3 Do the math, and that works out to about 200,000 person-hours of work that ABC News just deleted.

What’s probably harder to see from the outside is that none of this was ever smooth sailing: that content was produced through a lot of blood, sweat, and tears (sometimes literally on certain election nights).

Maybe the deletion of the site has me feeling wistful, but I thought I’d write about the various phases of FiveThirtyEight, including some inside-baseball stuff that I’ve never really talked about publicly.

I’m just going to speak from my vantage point, not on behalf of the several dozen people who worked on the site in its various iterations. I’m not going to talk about competing editorial visions or personality clashes or any of that, though we had our fair share of newsroom drama. Instead, this is intended as more of a business school case study: a study of a large corporation, The Walt Disney Company, behaving in an incredibly neglectful way toward a smaller brand it acquired, with dozens of employees who worked exceptionally hard despite constant existential uncertainty.

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I want to state one thing up front: I think FiveThirtyEight could have been a highly valuable business if it had been managed more carefully. I know the New York Times considered FiveThirtyEight a valuable part of its subscription offering. I know some of the sharper minds behind subscription-based businesses tried to acquire FiveThirtyEight at various times. And I know the economics of Silver Bulletin, and they’re good. There are challenges: our traffic is highly cyclical, increasing severalfold around major elections and sporting events. Still, my guess is that FiveThirtyEight could have had north of 100,000 paying subscribers by this point: in the same general ballpark as The Free Press, which recently sold for $150 million.

The thinking at Disney is presumably that they invested a lot of money in FiveThirtyEight and were left with nothing to show for it. But to my mind, however much they spent on FiveThirtyEight, they never invested a dollar in it. There was never really any effort, or even any pretense of trying, to make it a profitable unit of the company. At one point, other senior staffers and I basically begged Disney to turn on a paywall, figuring this could provide some security, and were told, essentially, that it just wasn’t worth Disney’s bandwidth to figure out the mechanics of one. We were treated like an unused gym membership: you don’t want to cancel because you think you ought to be hitting the gym, but every month a charge hits your credit card statement and you aren’t getting any fitter.

The origins of FiveThirtyEight.com

I founded FiveThirtyEight.com under the pseudonym “poblano” in March 2008 as a spin-off from a popular series of posts at the progressive blog Daily Kos. For the previous several years, after quitting my corporate consulting job in 2004, I’d had two main sources of income. One of them was building statistical models like PECOTA for Baseball Prospectus, an early adopter of a subscription-based business model that still exists today and has graduated dozens of staffers into Major League front offices. BP had good timing going for it — this was the dawn of the Moneyball era in sports. But the subscription-based offerings were relatively rare at the time. BP churned out enough revenue to support a middle-class income for around a dozen co-owners/stat nerds/writers but not much more than that.

However, I didn’t really care because my real source of income was playing online poker. Yes, there really was a time when you could click buttons for a living and make a pretty good income by working the late shift against what I imagined to be drunk Scandinavians. It seemed too good to be true, and ultimately it was. The passage of the UIGEA in late 2006 essentially cut off new money flowing into the game, the remaining players were getting sharper, and the format I specialized in at the time (limit hold ‘em) was gradually losing ground to no-limit hold ‘em, which I wouldn’t become proficient at until years later.

The UIGEA, passed on the last day before Congress adjourned for the 2006 midterm elections, did pique my interest in American politics, however. I wanted the bastards who had deprived me of a living to be voted out of office, and they largely were, including the chief sponsor of the bill, the 15-term Iowa Congressman Jim Leach.

“Moneyball, but for elections” was a logical enough pitch, but I didn’t anticipate the degree to which FiveThirtyEight.com would become a viral hit in 2008. It helped that the election featured a number of compelling personalities, including a guy whose name I’d vaguely remembered from my time at the University of Chicago: Barack Obama. I ran ads on FiveThirtyEight, and the money wasn’t fantastic by any means, but digital advertising rates were comparatively healthier back then, so it was enough to pay the rent.

FiveThirtyEight, de-anonymized midway through the 2008 cycle, drew a lot of media attention, particularly after the model’s highly confident “call” that Obama would defeat John McCain proved correct. On a train platform on my way back from the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference conference in 2009, I encountered a senior editor at the New York Times who had been in attendance. I’ve long been an admirer of the NYT — my parents in East Lansing, Michigan even had a ritual of walking to the bookstore every day to buy the print edition. Long story short, the NYT made a good-enough offer. The finances weren’t fantastic, but it was an extremely clean deal: I was a contractor, not an employee, so I was free to pursue other sources of income, and I regained full ownership of the models and the other IP after I left the Times.

Honestly, I expected to renew with the Times. At the risk of being immodest, the 2012 election forecast had been a smashing success, with the FiveThirtyEight model famously “calling” all 50 states correctly that year in a stroke of luck that later felt like a bit of a curse. (There was only about a 3 percent chance this would happen, according to the model’s internal logic.) The Times had launched a digital paywall midway through my time there, and its subscription revenues had grown significantly in the 4Q of 2012, coinciding with the Obama-Romney election. How much FiveThirtyEight was responsible for this was hard to say — the Times has had a lot of success without us, obviously — but I had a lot of leverage.

“We” (my attorney and I) basically decided to give the Times an exclusive negotiating window before exploring the market. My keen sense at the time was that the NYT would not be the highest bidder, but I really did like working there, and they deployed me creatively on everything from the Magazine to the book review. The Times was a deeply factional place in those days, though, and the FiveThirtyEight product had both internal champions and internal critics.4 The Times was also in the midst of a leadership transition, and new management tends to want to move on from the old regime’s pet projects, even if they were successful. Although I’d moved to an apartment within walking distance of the NYT office in anticipation of a new deal, the Times dragged its feet to the point where we eventually felt like we had no choice but to test the market.

We wound up signing up with ESPN. It doesn’t seem like the most obvious fit now, but this came during an era when ESPN basically thought of itself as the best business in the world, guaranteed an annuity based on cable rights fees. Its then-president, John Skipper, had highbrow ambitions for premium products, notably Grantland. Grantland, built around another spiky founder, was quite explicitly a precedent for FiveThirtyEight @ Disney. I don’t catch up much with Bill Simmons these days, but he was a helpful consigliere during the negotiations, offering reliable advice on navigating any and all things Disney-related.

For the record, other offers we seriously considered came from NBC News, Bloomberg and the Times. The latter two would probably have been better fits, because they’re basically in the same business as Silver Bulletin/FiveThirtyEight: selling premium subscription products.5 ESPN and NBC are primarily television networks, by contrast. I’ve never really liked going on TV, and it’s probably my worst medium despite some genuinely good-faith efforts by ABC News to make it work.

The early Disney years: mistakes were made (mostly by me)

In hindsight, I chose poorly. Skipper had been fairly explicit that he didn’t really care whether FiveThirtyEight made money: like Grantland, we were essentially a hood ornament on ESPN’s oversized SUV and a “rounding error” relative to Disney’s gigantic P&L.

That might seem like a fantastic situation — Disney’s pitch was basically “we’ll cut you a nice check to be maximally creative” — and I consider myself privileged to have been given the opportunity. But there were several problems with the arrangement.

The b-school way to put this is that there was never brand or incentive alignment — with Disney being very “macro” (it takes huge swings: theme parks, Marvel movies, NFL rights deals) and FiveThirtyEight being very “niche”. Furthermore, the Disney attitude basically seemed to be that “creatives” were sensitive artist types who didn’t care about money so long as they made enough of it, but I’ve always had a fairly entrepreneurial spirit.

But most of all, this sort of arrangement makes you extremely dependent on your bosses’ goodwill, and Skipper abruptly left ESPN one morning in 2017 because of an extortion scandal.

FiveThirtyEight relaunched @ Disney/ESPN in March 2014 to “mixed” reviews. And by “mixed” reviews, I mean mostly bad ones. The launch was kind of a disaster, really. I’ve written before about some of the Mistakes That Were Made, most of which were predictable mistakes that I made. Among other problems, I did too much bragging in the media and didn’t anticipate the extent to which public opinion toward FiveThirtyEight would shift once we became a corporate-backed incumbent rather than an eccentric upstart. We added too many staffers too quickly, perhaps anticipating that we’d never have more leverage to add “headcount” than when we were a new, shiny object for Disney. Relatedly, we put too much emphasis on quantity and not enough on core products.

The core mistake, though, was that almost nobody was thinking about how to make FiveThirtyEight a viable business. We had essentially no dedicated business people or “product” people or anyone else whose job description depended on the site being economically viable. We never developed the muscle memory or the infrastructure to be a commercial product.

Despite all of this, FiveThirtyEight eventually rounded into a very good and popular website, or so I’d like to think. Our 2016 election forecast was literally the most “engaging” feature on the internet, according to Chartbeat, and our podcast received hundreds of thousands of downloads per episode.

But it never quite felt that way. Whenever we felt like we finally had some open runway, we’d encounter an unwelcome hurdle.

In 2015, I was taken aside while walking with my boss one warm spring afternoon and told that Bill Simmons would be dismissed from Grantland. Grantland had a brief and tumultuous post-Bill period but was shuttered completely by late 2015. This was a very ominous precedent: Grantland had literally been in the same sub-unit of ESPN as FiveThirtyEight, with much of the same senior management.

Then in 2016, there was the whole … Trump thing. Being dismissive of Trump’s chances early on in the Republican primary was the biggest analytical mistake of my career, and I think I deserved a lot of blame for that.6 I will insist that our general election forecast did an excellent job that year, though. Our model famously/infamously gave Trump about a 30 percent chance of winning, much higher than prediction markets, other models or the conventional wisdom at the time. That’s not how the rest of the internet saw it, however. It was a difficult election night and a difficult aftermath period. Everyone had their own way of coping; I remember playing an inordinate amount of the EA Sports NHL game and trying to take the Rangers to the Stanley Cup.

We wanted to leave Disney sooner, and we probably should have

Honestly, ESPN took the Trump stuff relatively well. FiveThirtyEight had produced a truly extraordinary amount of traffic in 2016, at least — even if none of it was being monetized. But at some point in early/mid 2017, with my initial contract with ESPN set to expire in early 2018, Skipper called me up to his office one morning and told me basically that FiveThirtyEight could no longer be a thing at ESPN, but he’d work his connections to find a good landing place for it. I don’t know what the impetus was for this — although it came amidst the whole “stick to sports” period at ESPN, and FiveThirtyEight obviously mostly wasn’t sports. For what it’s worth, though, I thought Skipper was relatively sincere, and we did take a lot of meetings.

But the resulting negotiations were fraught. There were plenty of “suitors” interested in a pared-down version of FiveThirtyEight, which would trim staff by perhaps half to two-thirds. For better or worse, I’d chosen to place a big emphasis on staff retention, even though the market consensus was probably right that the business model would be better with a leaner staff. The two main external suitors were The Athletic (later sold to the New York Times) and, confusingly, The Atlantic. I think highly of the leadership at both organizations, and they had the right idea: FiveThirtyEight could be a compelling subscription product even if it wasn’t viable based on web advertising alone.

We came quite close to securing a deal with The Athletic, close enough that the founders came to New York for an entire week of meetings to sort through every detail. I’d expected things to culminate with a handshake agreement and a celebratory lunch before they headed back to California. If you know anything about my organizational skills, they aren’t great, but I thought we (me and the other senior staff) did a reasonably good job of softening the ground for a potential transition to The Athletic and a subscription-based business model. This wasn’t a hard sell because most of the staff would be offered jobs at the new organization.

Long story short: the potential deal with The Athletic hit a last-minute snafu, which there might have been time to work around if there hadn’t been a hard deadline imposed by Disney, but Disney needed a decision from us. The sale process was complex: Disney owned some of the key IP (the trade name and site archive), while I owned some of it (the models). Moreover, Disney was both running the sales process and represented one of the bidders (ABC News). Somewhat bizarrely, ABC, a Disney related party, had entered the bidding at some point midway through the process; apparently, there had been some signals crossed about this in Burbank, and ESPN hadn’t realized that ABC had been interested.

So we put our tail between our legs and signed up for another tenure at Disney, doing our best to make it seem as though this had been the plan all along when it obviously wasn’t. Although ABC News was nominally a better fit than ESPN — they did put me and other staffers on TV more often — I was quite certain at the time that this was going to be our last hurrah at Disney. It became apparent, even before there was any ink on the deal, that while ABC News was happy enough to spend money on FiveThirtyEight with major elections forthcoming, there was the same issue as with ESPN: they weren’t really looking to invest in the property in a way that might make it profitable and sustainable. And even more so than ESPN, ABC News was a dinosaur of a business that attracted mostly older customers and managerial talent.

Nevertheless, the period from roughly 2018 to 2019 was probably the high point of FiveThirtyEight at Disney. It helped that our 2018 midterms forecast basically totally nailed the outcome, offsetting at least some of the stink from 2016. Still, the existential uncertainty about Disney’s loyalty to the site persisted.

This was when we pitched the paywall idea to upper management. Disney batted it around and ultimately turned us down. We never quite got a coherent rationale for why: something something about Disney being busy with its Hulu acquisition and not wanting to launch multiple subscription-based businesses at the same time.

It didn’t make much sense. My content had been paywalled at the New York Times and at Baseball Prospectus before that. Long before Substack came along, it was the business model that works for differentiated, high-quality content. (For “niche sites”, if you will, although elections and sports are large niches.) I don’t know what the paywall would have made, but after a year or two to get settled, it would probably have been comfortably in the seven figures annually: let’s call it $5 million. The cost might be annoying some customers who were used to free content, but we were hardly running any ads on the site anyway.7

What sort of business basically turns down a “free” $5 million? Well, apparently, a company like Disney, a company that made $69 billion in revenues in 2019. If you’re a rounding error when you’re losing a couple of million bucks a year, you’re a rounding error if you’re making a few million also.

The most generous interpretation is that Disney only understands things that operate at very large scales to truly mass-market audiences. ESPN.com had once been the exception to this, full of quirky offerings like Page 2 and Grantland. But it has largely been lobotomized, too, with talents like Pablo Torre and Zach Lowe having been let go.

The long, weird, bitter end

Then came the COVID pandemic in 2020. We thought we were smart by telling staff to start working from home a day or two before official Disney guidance, not realizing that the newsroom would never really be the same again.

Honestly, I think people forget how difficult this whole period was. I consider myself lucky never to have gotten seriously sick or to have lost any close friends to COVID. But there were challenges if you were working in the media at the time: the adjustment to “going remote” and the political “reckoning” that basically any non-explicitly-conservative-coded media business experienced, and all of this coming on top of an election year.

Even as the world awkwardly and unsteadily got “back to normal,” FiveThirtyEight never really did. Key staffers like Clare Malone were let go without any real plan to replace them. Slowly, the oxygen tubes were being removed.

There was also the matter of my contract. The new deal I’d signed with ABC News in 2018 was nominally 5 years long but included a mutual opt-out after 3.5 years, originally timed to December 2021. Either I or ABC had the right to pull the plug, but if neither of us did, the deal would extend through the 2022 midterms by default.

The signals I was getting from ABC News were quite bearish, but they also weren’t quite ready to make a decision. What I wanted, frankly, was to pare down my responsibilities to Disney — and take an appropriate pay cut — in exchange for non-exclusivity. I’d license the models to them for 2022, produce some designated number of columns and TV appearances. But I wanted to be officially free of managerial responsibilities, serving as more of a mentor/founder, and also free to start a Substack and begin building an audience for it.

ABC’s response to this was basically radio silence. There was never any sort of counteroffer or serious conversation about it. Surely, then, they’d exercise their opt-out right, and we’d each go our separate ways in December?

Well, no. Disney repeatedly asked to push back the deadline for making a go/no-go decision, and my agents and I agreed to several extensions until we got tired of the delays.

The eventual, thrice-delayed deadline came on an exceptionally cold Saturday in February.8 I had a late dinner reservation with my sister and some friends, and we went back to her apartment afterward. I checked my inbox in between sips of wine, half expecting to get an email from ABC at 11:59 p.m., but nothing came. I don’t know if they literally forgot about it, but that’s how it felt.

To be fair, I could have opted out also, and if I’d known at the time how much better life after Disney would be, I would have. But I was pretty explicitly in a lame-duck period from that point onward. I’d totally busted my ass for the first seven or eight years of my 10-year tenure with Disney, but in this late phase, I was mostly focused on my book, which I explicitly had the right to work on per my contract.

I received an urgent text message from my boss one morning in April 2023. There had been rumors of job cuts at ABC News, and it could only mean one thing. What was surprising, though, was that while the cuts were both deep and haphazard — while you might have been able to take a go at 2024 with a skeleton crew, you probably wouldn’t have wanted to cut all the managers and editors, as ABC did — they weren’t quite ready to shut down the site entirely. I was not, technically speaking, a part of this layoff, but with only two months to go on my contract, it was safe to assume that they weren’t going to offer me a new deal and I wouldn’t have taken one anyway with the staff gutted and the remaining staffers left in an incredibly challenging place.

To be honest, I’m not sure that ABC News realized that they had no more rights to the models: the license term on the election models expired with my contract.9 But they did eventually hire another “model guy”, G. Elliott Morris, to replace me. I am absolutely not looking to extend a beef with Morris, who, like me, seems much happier with his post-Disney life on Substack. But it’s important context to state that this isn’t the person I’d have hired; we’d had a long-running feud, in fact.

I chatted with my ex-boss at about this point in time and asked if they’d consider discontinuing use of the FiveThirtyEight trade name. Even leaving the Morris hire aside, there were a number of other things I did not like, such as beginning to stylize “FiveThirtyEight” as “538” and replacing our carefully refined site design with an ugly ABC News template. (Even though FiveThirtyEight routinely drove more web traffic than the entirety of ABCNews.com.) There was no more sports section, either. The brand was very much being depreciated, and I didn’t want people to associate this stage of the site with its glory days.

What happened in 2024 isn’t something I’d have scripted, though. Basically, their new election model was literally broken, continuing to show Joe Biden virtually tied with Trump even after his disastrous debate. (Evidently because Morris’s design for it had been overcomplicated. These models are hard to design, by the way.) The model was taken offline for more than a month after Biden dropped out, missing basically the entirety of the Kamala Harris “Brat Summer” period. My understanding is that the new, debugged version had been ready earlier, but ABC News PR was exceptionally sensitive about public perceptions around the model, speaking about it only cryptically in contrast to the transparency the site had been known for.

Meanwhile, I had a good year. Silver Bulletin received more support than I ever expected, and I was all over the media during my book tour. I’m not going to lie: after 10 years feeling jerked around by Disney, the whole sequence was pretty satisfying. But it also proved the point about a subscription-based model being the right call.

ABC finally fully shut down FiveThirtyEight in March 2025, 11 years after its debut at Disney. Eleven years is a long time in the media business, and the site covered one of the most tumultuous periods in American political history with its unique blend of analytics, brutal honesty and irreverence.

Disney refuses to negotiate with me

It would be nice if that work could be preserved for the public record. I don’t know what plans Disney has for FiveThirtyEight, if any. But I did approach Disney a year or two ago, through my agent, about acquiring the remaining IP. I’m probably the logical high bidder, though the value is rapidly depreciating as what’s left of the site falls into disrepair. At a minimum, we’d restore the archive, with prominent links to Silver Bulletin.

We were told to basically get lost: ABC was annoyed with my critical public comments about their management of FiveThirtyEight. It apparently wasn’t a long conversation, so I don’t have a lot more color to report than that.

Hanlon’s Razor states: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity. But honestly, I don’t know which explanation is better suited to ABC. During the second half of my tenure with Disney, it felt like they were putting almost literally zero effort into any decisions involving FiveThirtyEight (other than my being featured prominently in their election night coverage10).

The one good thing about the bitter ending is that it prevents the temptation to feel overly awash in nostalgia. Because FiveThirtyEight was always produced with a lot of care, including attention to copy editing and graphics, it tended to impress people as a more smoothly running operation than it actually was. Internally, there was always a lot of conflict: between bright but opinionated staffers, all of whom had slightly different ideas about what “data journalism” was, between staffers and their opinionated boss/founder, between the news cycle and our deadlines, and between pretty much everyone and Disney. The relationship with Disney wasn’t particularly heated, so there weren’t a lot of stories that would make for good movie scenes. But mostly we just felt neglected.

Disney HR did send me a literal Mickey Mouse plaque after I left, celebrating my 10 years as a “castmember”. There was one small problem, though: they misspelled my first name as “Nataniel”.

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1

Some late-stage content published under abcnews.com URLs still survives.

2

Although I still own the IP to the original versions of the sports models, most of them were last worked on 5-10 years ago, so I’ve basically decided to do a complete refresh on our suite of sports models instead.

3

That’s probably about right. The average Silver Bulletin story takes something like 15 hours from start to finish, and I write faster than most people.

4

The Times is a different newsroom now, both more data-friendly and more pluralistic, but at the time, the main tensions were with the politics desk, which did not appreciate FiveThirtyEight’s implicit criticism of “horse-race” type coverage during what was ultimately a pretty boring 2012 election

5

In Bloomberg’s case, primarily the Bloomberg Terminal.

6

We’d also been dismissive of Bernie Sanders’s chances against Hillary Clinton, a “call” that was technically correct but maybe not correct in spirit given that Sanders won quite a few states in a way that foreshadowed Clinton’s weaknesses.

7

And we’d probably have wanted to hire a couple of staff devoted to things like pricing strategy and customer retention. Let’s call it $400K-$500K/year for two senior staffers. Still a pretty good return on investment.

8

Or maybe a cold Friday night in January. A good night to eat pizza at Lucali, in any event.

9

Disney retained a non-exclusive license to continue publishing the sports models (but not the politics models) in the condition they were in as of my departure. Instead, they fired the entire sports staff and stopped publishing them anyway.

10

ABC was also constantly begging us to replicate the New York Times “needle”. The needle is an exceptionally challenging engineering and statistical product; we had nowhere near the resources for it, and always found a way to turn them down.



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chrisamico
24 days ago
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How China’s Leader Lost Faith in His Generals

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Xi Jinping spent 13 years building a military to rival that of the United States. But the stronger the Chinese forces grew, the less he trusted the generals he had handpicked to run them.

China’s leader, Xi Jinping, during a military parade in Tiananmen Square in 2025 in Beijing.Credit...Pedro Pardo/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

The purge China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has inflicted on the military elite was plain to see at a recent legislative meeting. A year earlier, state television footage showed around 40 generals in the room. This time, there were only a handful.

Yet Mr. Xi indicated that an upheaval that rivaled those of the Mao era was not over. Stony-faced, he warned the remaining officers to beware of disloyalty.

“The military,” he said, “must never have anyone who harbors a divided heart toward the party.”

It was a rare public reference by Mr. Xi to one of the worst political crises of his 13 years in power: He had lost faith in the military leadership that he had spent a decade remolding.

“When Xi uses the words ‘divided heart,’ they are heavy with meaning,” said Chien-wen Kou, a professor at National Chengchi University in Taiwan. The phrase is found in ancient Chinese treatises that counsel rulers against treacherous generals, including a volume Mr. Xi has kept on his bookshelf.

“Even his most trusted and important confidants have fallen,” Professor Kou said. “Who else can gain his trust?”

The crisis threatens one of Mr. Xi’s great feats: the transformation of the Chinese military into a formidable force with new aircraft carriers, hypersonic missiles and an expanding nuclear arsenal. And it comes as China’s rivalry with the United States has intensified, and as the Trump administration has put American firepower, and its limits, on vivid display in Venezuela and Iran.

China’s war readiness may be disrupted for years by the very cleanup that Mr. Xi has said is necessary to purify and strengthen the ranks. What once looked like a limited crackdown on corruption became a sweeping dismissal of dozens of top officers, and culminated in the downfall early this year of Zhang Youxia, China’s top uniformed commander, who had appeared to be a confidant of Mr. Xi’s.

The final break between them came, by some accounts, when Mr. Xi sought to promote the general leading the cleanup to a position rivaling General Zhang’s. General Zhang objected. Months later, he was out.

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Mr. Xi, seated center, watching members of the Central Military Commission take their oath during a session of the National People’s Congress in Beijing in 2023. Most of the generals are now under investigation or were dismissed.Credit...Mark Schiefelbein/Associated Press

The gravity of the campaign was on stark display again this past week, when a military court sentenced two former defense ministers to death, suspended for two years, for bribery. They will probably spend the rest of their lives in prison.

“This is Xi Jinping’s military,” said Daniel Mattingly, an associate professor at Yale University who studies China’s politics and military. “Why does he break the thing that he built?

“It’s not what people would have expected of Xi, even five years ago. Something profound changed,” he said.

The corruption Mr. Xi has been hunting is real. But earlier internal speeches by Mr. Xi, not previously reported in detail, reveal another factor: a leader who saw in any sign of disobedience the seed of a political threat to his rule. He became convinced, analysts say, that the commanders he had chosen to modernize the military could no longer be trusted, their loyalty and effectiveness eroded by graft and cronyism.

Want to stay updated on what’s happening in China? , and we’ll send our latest coverage to your inbox.

Analysts say the upheaval has also exposed the tensions between Mr. Xi’s two imperatives — preparing for combat and enforcing loyalty. Ultimately, Mr. Xi ousted a battle-experienced general who helped remake his military and replaced him with an inquisitor, who is now, alongside Mr. Xi, the sole other remaining member of China’s top military council.

“Xi Jinping’s rule is slowly entering its late stage,” Professor Kou said. “His political calculations change in this stage, his anxieties become increasingly about members of his own inner circle.”

Early on, Mr. Xi appeared determined to avoid the fate of his predecessor, Hu Jintao, who was widely seen to have failed to establish his authority over China’s military commanders.

Mr. Hu’s weakness was exposed in 2011 during a visit to Beijing by Robert Gates, then the U.S. secretary of defense. Mr. Gates asked Mr. Hu about the test flight of a Chinese stealth fighter jet, news of which had emerged that morning on Chinese websites.

Mr. Hu seemed to have no knowledge of it. “The civilian leadership seemed surprised by the test,” Mr. Gates told reporters later.

Mr. Hu’s directives to army commanders were “more like suggestions they would consider,” said John Culver, a former C.I.A. analyst now at the Brookings Institution. “Basically you had a system that was no longer responsive to the party.”

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Robert Gates, left, the U.S. defense secretary at the time, and China’s then-president, Hu Jintao, in 2011 at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.Credit...Pool photo by Larry Downing

After coming to power in 2012, Mr. Xi launched investigations against commanders who had grown wealthy, and overweening, under Mr. Hu, including some previously deemed untouchable because of their status.

In 2014, Mr. Xi summoned hundreds of senior officers to Gutian, a town in eastern China where, according to party histories, Mao Zedong in 1929 established the fundamental principle that defines the Chinese state today: The party commands the gun.

Mr. Xi used that historical backdrop to warn that the Communist Party’s control of the armed forces had eroded to a dangerous degree.

At Gutian, Mr. Xi laid out the problems he had inherited. Faith in the party’s values had decayed. Corruption, cronyism and insubordination was brazen. He cited training exercises so fake that soldiers used shovels and sticks instead of guns.

To Mr. Xi, the rot was exemplified by Gen. Xu Caihou, who was a retired vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, a position that had put him near the top of the People’s Liberation Army. General Xu had been placed under investigation, accused of taking huge bribes, including for arranging promotions for officers.

“Xu Caihou always solemnly professed undying loyalty and love toward the party,” Mr. Xi said, according to a previously unreported version of a speech he made in Gutian that circulated inside the military. “But really, deep in his soul he had long ago fallen away from the party and into corruption and depravity.”

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Xu Caihou with colleagues in 2004 in Changchun, China. General Xu was accused of taking huge bribes in return for arranging promotions.Credit...Reuters

Mr. Xi was also alarmed by events abroad. He cited cautionary stories of leaders in the Middle East and the Soviet Union who were toppled after their militaries abandoned them in the face of insurrections.

Mr. Xi came to the job with a reverence for the People’s Liberation Army. His father was a revolutionary leader who had fought under Mao. In his early career, Mr. Xi worked as a secretary to the minister of defense. Mr. Xi believed that to instill loyalty in the military to the Communist Party and to him, he had to revive “political work” — the indoctrination, vetting and monitoring that made officers and troops trustworthy.

To drive home the new spirit of discipline that he demanded in Gutian, Mr. Xi was shown eating coarse rice and pumpkin soup, the humble, storied meal of the early Red Army.

“Absolute loyalty to the party rests on the word ‘absolute’,” Mr. Xi said. “It is a loyalty that is singular, total, unconditional and free from any impurities or fakery.”

From his first years in power, Mr. Xi also began entrenching a “chairman responsibility system,” an overhaul that tightened his control over the military by giving him intelligence and control deep into its ranks. He declared his confidence in his own ability to spot the right commanders for promotion.

“The key to building a strong military lies in picking the right people,” he said in an internal speech in 2016, describing how he vetted and spoke to prospects for promotion. “Senior and mid-ranking officers are the backbone for building and running the military, and as chairman of the Central Military Commission, I should personally handle this.”

He also replaced decades-old military regions with new theater commands and he dissolved central People’s Liberation Army departments that he saw as barriers to effective control. His goal was to give China the ability to combine land, air and sea forces to project power abroad, while ensuring that this modernized force stayed unflinchingly loyal.

Gen. Zhang Youxia was among the commanders entrusted with executing Mr. Xi’s vision. General Zhang was a gruff, charismatic officer who had distinguished himself on the frontline of China’s yearslong border war with Vietnam from 1979. He was the son of a revolutionary general who had fought alongside Mr. Xi’s father.

Mr. Xi had earlier promoted him to the Central Military Commission and made him head of the military’s general armaments department. The department was in charge of acquiring new weapons, which are vital to Mr. Xi’s modernization plans, but had also become a mire of corruption, fed by its control over funds and contracts.

Image

A photograph provided by China’s state media showed drones and other armaments in a military parade in Beijing last year. Mr. Xi had entrusted Gen. Zhang Youxia with executing his vision of the military’s modernization. Credit...Liu Xu/Xinhua, via Associated Press

“He came from a privileged Communist Party background, and it showed,” said Drew Thompson, who was working at the Pentagon and met General Zhang in 2012 when he took part in a Chinese military delegation on a visit to the United States. “I think that combination of his background, his combat experience, his self-confidence, his comfort with weapon systems and his openness to change made him attractive to Xi.”

By 2018, Mr. Xi appeared satisfied that his overhaul was paying off. While he acknowledged to the Central Military Commission that problems remained, he said the changes were a “historic transformation” that had “saved the military.”

When Mr. Xi won a third term as leader in 2022, he unexpectedly retained General Zhang in the military commission. At 72, the commander had been expected to step down. Mr. Xi instead made him China’s top general, tasked with pursuing Mr. Xi’s goal of a breakthrough in military capabilities by 2027.

China faced an increasingly perilous world, Mr. Xi said two weeks later during a visit to the Joint Operations Command Center. “Direct all our energies to combat readiness,” he said.

But just over half a year later, in 2023, the veneer of stability cracked. Mr. Xi abruptly replaced the Rocket Force’s top commander and his deputy — an extraordinary move in the arm of the military that controls nuclear and conventional missiles. The purge was never publicly explained. Then China’s defense minister was dismissed without explanation.

Suddenly, Mr. Xi’s transformation of the People’s Liberation Army looked plagued by the same problems of corruption and disobedience that he claimed to have excised.

This time, Mr. Xi brought his commanders to Yan’an, the hallowed base of Mao’s revolution, where Mr. Xi called for a deepening campaign of “political rectification.” In the two years that followed, dozens of high-ranking officers were removed or disappeared from public view.

As the campaign widened, so did the power of Gen. Zhang Shengmin, the commander steering the investigations. He had risen through the ranks despite having little experience in military operations. In the Rocket Force, he was a political commissar, enforcing party loyalty. He was known for his love of Chinese brush calligraphy.

He was later promoted to a newly created agency that investigates graft and disloyalty in the military. His ascent reflected the importance Mr. Xi gave to ideological control and political loyalty, even as he also called for battlefield readiness.

“In Xi’s analysis, failures of readiness stemming from corruption are merely an outgrowth of ideological impurity,” said Joel Wuthnow, a senior fellow at the National Defense University in Washington who studies China’s military. “The rot was perhaps deeper than Xi imagined in 2023, and so he needed to take more drastic steps.”

Gen. Zhang Shengmin’s powers were most likely enhanced by pervasive surveillance technologies that gave investigators more tools to spy into the lives, and financial flows, of officers and their families, said Mr. Culver, the researcher at Brookings.

By late 2025, the purges were reshaping not just the ranks but the balance of power among remaining commanders. Analysts suggested that as the investigations deepened, there was growing turbulence inside the military elite, including between commanders focused on warfighting goals and officers tasked with enforcing political loyalty.

“Xi is trapped in a red versus expert contradiction,” said Mr. Thompson, the former Pentagon official, referring to “red” as loyalty to the party.

Image

Gen. Zhang Shengmin saluting Mr. Xi in March at a conference at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.Credit...Kevin Frayer/Getty Images

With China’s next leadership transition due at a Communist Party congress late next year, in this reading, Mr. Xi appeared more sensitive to perceived threats to his authority. His top commander, Gen. Zhang Youxia, seemed more dominant, with many potential rivals toppled. But he was not untouched: The investigations had also brought down other generals linked to him, potentially implicating him.

And the chief investigator, Gen. Zhang Shengmin, was rising.

The final straw came when Mr. Xi moved to promote Gen. Zhang Shengmin to vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, said Christopher K. Johnson, a former U.S. government intelligence officer who is now president of China Strategies Group, a consultancy firm.

Gen. Zhang Youxia, backed by his second-in-command, Gen. Liu Zhenli, objected to that proposal because placing an investigator in such a powerful position risked painting the People’s Liberation Army as an unserious combat force, Mr. Johnson said.

Modern Chinese history offers examples of commanders who overestimated how far they could push their leaders. General Zhang appears to have done the same. “Zhang Youxia thought, ‘I’ve got the credentials to say this,’ and it turns out he didn’t,” Mr. Johnson said.

When he and his deputy were removed early this year, the official military newspaper accused them of having “gravely trampled on” the chairman responsibility system, which Mr. Xi had built up to cement his control over the military.

Mr. Xi is not stopping there. In April, he launched a program of “ideological rectification” and “revolutionary forging” within the military — an indoctrination drive, in other words. Mr. Xi addressed the assembled senior officers, described as the first batch of attendees in Beijing, suggesting that the campaign to instill loyalty would roll on.

Television footage of the meeting showed rows of officers diligently taking notes as Mr. Xi spoke. Sitting next to him was Gen. Zhang Shengmin, the enforcer.

Chris Buckley, the chief China correspondent for The Times, reports on China and Taiwan from Taipei, focused on politics, social change and security and military issues.

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